Department of Communication Studies, University of Michigan, 102 South State Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1285, USA.
J Health Commun. 2012;17(1):76-89. doi: 10.1080/10810730.2011.585697. Epub 2011 Nov 15.
The authors investigated the association between exposure to smoking in movies and the initiation and progression of adolescent smoking over time among 6,522 U.S. adolescents (between the ages of 10 and 14 years, at baseline) in a nationally representative, 4-wave random-digit-dial telephone survey. They conducted a hazard (survival) analysis testing whether exposure to movie smoking and demographic, personality, social, and structural factors predict (a) earlier smoking onset and (b) faster transition to experimental (1-99 cigarettes/lifetime) and established smoking (>100 cigarettes/lifetime). Results suggest that higher exposure to movie smoking is associated with less time to trying cigarettes for the first time (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.66; 95% CI [1.37, 2.01]) but not with faster escalation of smoking behavior following initiation (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.53; 95% CI [0.84, 2.79]). In contrast, age, peer smoking, parenting style, and availability of cigarettes in the home were predictors of earlier onset and faster transition to established smoking. Thus, the authors concluded that the effect of exposure to mass-mediated images of smoking in movies may decline once adolescents have started to smoke, whereas peers and access to tobacco remain influential.
作者在一项全国代表性的四波随机数字拨号电话调查中，调查了美国 6522 名青少年（年龄在 10 至 14 岁之间，基线时）在电影中接触吸烟与青少年吸烟的开始和随时间进展之间的关联。他们进行了风险（生存）分析，测试接触电影吸烟以及人口统计学、个性、社会和结构因素是否预测（a）更早开始吸烟，以及（b）更快过渡到实验性（1-99 支香烟/终生）和建立性吸烟（>100 支香烟/终生）。结果表明，较高的电影吸烟暴露与首次尝试吸烟的时间较短有关（调整后的危险比=1.66；95%置信区间[1.37, 2.01]），但与起始后吸烟行为的快速升级无关（调整后的危险比=1.53；95%置信区间[0.84, 2.79]）。相比之下，年龄、同伴吸烟、父母教养方式以及家庭中香烟的可用性是更早开始吸烟和更快过渡到建立性吸烟的预测因素。因此，作者得出结论，一旦青少年开始吸烟，接触大众媒体中吸烟的形象的影响可能会下降，而同伴和获得烟草的机会仍然具有影响力。
