Adaptation and Impacts Research Section, Environment Canada, c/o Faculty of Environment, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue West, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
J Safety Res. 2011 Oct;42(5):383-90. doi: 10.1016/j.jsr.2011.08.004. Epub 2011 Oct 11.
Police records are the most common source of data used to estimate motor-vehicle collision risks, understand causal or contributing factors, and evaluate the efficacy of interventions. The literature notes concerns about this information citing discrepancies between police reports and other sources of injury occurrence and severity data. The primary objective of the analysis was to assess the adequacy of police reports for an examination of weather-related injury collision risk.
Analyses of relative risk were carried out using both police records and comprehensive insurance claim data for Winnipeg, Canada over the period 1999-2001.
Both data sets yielded very similar results-precipitation substantially increases the risk of injury collision (police records: RR 1.76, CI 1.55-2.00; insurance: RR 1.80, CI 1.62-1.99) and risk of injury (police records, RR 1.74, CI 1.55-1.96; insurance, RR 1.69, CI 1.55-1.85) relative to corresponding dry weather control periods. Both rainfall and snowfall were associated with large increases in collisions and injuries.
While relative risks are almost identical, over 64% more injury collisions and 74% more injuries were identified using the insurance data, which is an important difference for evaluating absolute risk and exposure.
警方记录是用于估计机动车碰撞风险、了解因果或促成因素以及评估干预措施效果的最常见数据来源。文献中提到了对这些信息的担忧，指出警方报告与其他伤害发生和严重程度数据来源之间存在差异。分析的主要目的是评估警方报告在考察与天气相关的伤害碰撞风险方面的充分性。
使用加拿大温尼伯市 1999-2001 年期间的警方记录和综合保险索赔数据，对相对风险进行了分析。
两个数据集都得出了非常相似的结果——降水会大幅增加伤害碰撞的风险（警方记录：RR 1.76，CI 1.55-2.00；保险：RR 1.80，CI 1.62-1.99）和伤害风险（警方记录，RR 1.74，CI 1.55-1.96；保险，RR 1.69，CI 1.55-1.85），与相应的干燥天气对照期相比。降雨和降雪都与碰撞和伤害的大幅增加有关。
虽然相对风险几乎相同，但使用保险数据可识别出超过 64%的伤害碰撞和 74%的伤害，这对于评估绝对风险和暴露量是一个重要的差异。
