International Diabetes Federation, Brussels, Belgium.
Diabetes Res Clin Pract. 2011 Dec;94(3):322-32. doi: 10.1016/j.diabres.2011.10.040. Epub 2011 Nov 17.
Diabetes is a major cause of morbidity and mortality and its global prevalence is growing rapidly. A simple and robust approach to estimate the prevalence of diabetes is essential for governments to set priorities on how to meet the challenges of the disease. The International Diabetes Federation has developed a methodology for generating country-level estimates of diabetes prevalence in adults (20-79 years).
Using country-level data sources from peer-reviewed studies, national health statistics reports, commissioned studies on diabetes prevalence, and unpublished data obtained through personal communication, we use logistic regression to generate estimates of the prevalence of diabetes. An approach matching countries on ethnicity, geography, and income group is used to fill in gaps where original data sources are not available. The methodology also uses changes in urbanization and population to generate estimates and projections on the prevalence of diabetes in adults.
Diabetes prevalence estimates are very sensitive to the data from which they are derived. The revised IDF methodology for estimating diabetes prevalence is a transparent, reproducible approach that will be updated annually. It takes data-driven approaches to filling in gaps where data are not available and where assumptions have to be made. It uses a qualification system to rank data sources so that only the highest quality data are used.
糖尿病是发病率和死亡率的主要原因，其全球患病率正在迅速增长。对于政府来说，采用一种简单而可靠的方法来估算糖尿病的流行率对于确定如何应对该疾病的挑战至关重要。国际糖尿病联合会已经制定了一种针对成年人（20-79 岁）的国家层面糖尿病流行率估算方法。
我们使用来自同行评议研究、国家卫生统计报告、委托进行的糖尿病流行率研究以及通过个人交流获得的未发表数据等国家层面数据来源，利用逻辑回归生成糖尿病流行率的估算值。我们采用一种匹配国家的种族、地理位置和收入群体的方法来填补原始数据源不可用的空白。该方法还利用城市化和人口变化来生成成年人糖尿病流行率的估算值和预测值。
糖尿病流行率的估算值非常敏感，取决于所使用的数据。经过修订的国际糖尿病联合会估算糖尿病流行率的方法是一种透明、可重复的方法，每年都会进行更新。它采用数据驱动的方法来填补数据空白，并在需要做出假设的地方进行填补。它使用资格系统对数据源进行排名，只使用最高质量的数据。
