1Department of Epidemiology and Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology, & Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD.
2Environmental Epidemiology Group, Institute of Occupational, Social and Environmental Medicine, Centre for Health and Society, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Düsseldorf, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany.
Diabetes Care. 2023 Jul 1;46(7):1388-1394. doi: 10.2337/dc22-2376.
To estimate the global, regional, and national prevalence of prediabetes, defined by impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or impaired fasting glucose (IFG).
We reviewed 7,014 publications for high-quality estimates of IGT (2-h glucose, 7.8-11.0 mmol/L [140-199 mg/dL]) and IFG (fasting glucose, 6.1-6.9 mmol/L [110-125 mg/dL]) prevalence for each country. We used logistic regression to generate prevalence estimates for IGT and IFG among adults aged 20-79 years in 2021 and projections for 2045. For countries without in-country data, we extrapolated estimates from countries with available data with similar geography, income, ethnicity, and language. Estimates were standardized to the age distribution for each country from the United Nations.
Approximately two-thirds of countries did not have high-quality IGT or IFG data. There were 50 high-quality studies for IGT from 43 countries and 43 high-quality studies for IFG from 40 countries. Eleven countries had data for both IGT and IFG. The global prevalence of IGT in 2021 was 9.1% (464 million) and is projected to increase to 10.0% (638 million) in 2045. The global prevalence of IFG in 2021 was 5.8% (298 million) and is projected to increase to 6.5% (414 million) in 2045. The 2021 prevalence of IGT and IFG was highest in high-income countries. In 2045, the largest relative growth in cases of IGT and IFG would be in low-income countries.
The global burden of prediabetes is substantial and growing. Enhancing prediabetes surveillance is necessary to effectively implement diabetes prevention policies and interventions.
评估全球、区域和国家的糖尿病前期患病率，定义为葡萄糖耐量受损（IGT）或空腹血糖受损（IFG）。
我们对 7014 篇高质量的 IGT（2 小时血糖，7.8-11.0mmol/L[140-199mg/dL]）和 IFG（空腹血糖，6.1-6.9mmol/L[110-125mg/dL]）患病率数据进行了回顾。我们使用逻辑回归来生成 2021 年 20-79 岁成年人的 IGT 和 IFG 患病率估计值，并对 2045 年的患病率进行预测。对于没有国内数据的国家，我们根据地理位置、收入、种族和语言相似的国家的数据进行外推。这些估计值按照联合国每个国家的年龄分布进行了标准化。
大约三分之二的国家没有高质量的 IGT 或 IFG 数据。有来自 43 个国家的 50 项高质量的 IGT 研究和来自 40 个国家的 43 项高质量的 IFG 研究。11 个国家同时有 IGT 和 IFG 的数据。2021 年全球 IGT 的患病率为 9.1%（4.64 亿人），预计到 2045 年将增加到 10.0%（6.38 亿人）。2021 年全球 IFG 的患病率为 5.8%（2.98 亿人），预计到 2045 年将增加到 6.5%（4.14 亿人）。2021 年，高收入国家的 IGT 和 IFG 患病率最高。到 2045 年，IGT 和 IFG 病例的相对增长率最大的将是低收入国家。
全球糖尿病前期的负担巨大且呈增长趋势。加强糖尿病前期监测是有效实施糖尿病预防政策和干预措施的必要条件。
