Miller Ted R, Bhattacharya Soma, Zaloshnja Eduard
Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation.
Ann Adv Automot Med. 2011;55:357-63.
This paper models the effects on crash fatalities and costs of 20 years of legislative actions resulting from Federal and state advocacy efforts. We catalogued road safety laws passed between 1990 and 2009 and motorcycle helmet law repeals that advocacy efforts narrowly defeated. We used NHTSA's estimates of lives saved by airbags and published estimates of the percentage reduction in related crash fatalities associated with each type of law. State by state and year by year, from the actual fatality count for the year, we modeled how many fatalities each state's laws averted. We assumed, somewhat shakily, that the percentage reduction in nonfatal injury costs would mirror the fatality reduction. We used crash cost estimates for 10 years between 1990 and 2008 to estimate total crash costs from 1990-2009. The costs were built from NHTSA's estimates of cost per crash. The state laws passed included 113 occupant protection laws, 131 impaired driving laws, and 76 teen driving laws, plus a Federal airbag mandate. These laws saved an estimated 120,000 lives. The life-saving benefits accelerated as the number of laws in force grew. By 2009, they resulted in 25% fewer crash fatalities. The largest life-saving benefits sprang from airbag, belt use, and impaired driving laws. Laws that affect narrow subpopulations had more modest impacts. The laws reduced insurance costs by more than $210 billion and saved government an estimated $42 billion. Including the value of lost quality of life, estimated savings exceeded $1.3 trillion. Legislative advocacy is truly a spark plug in the safety engine.
本文模拟了联邦和州宣传努力带来的20年立法行动对撞车死亡人数和成本的影响。我们梳理了1990年至2009年间通过的道路安全法律以及宣传努力险些未能阻止的摩托车头盔法废除情况。我们采用了美国国家公路交通安全管理局(NHTSA)对安全气囊挽救生命数量的估计,以及已公布的与每种法律相关的撞车死亡人数减少百分比的估计。逐年逐州地,根据当年的实际死亡人数,我们模拟了每个州的法律避免了多少死亡人数。我们有些不太可靠地假设,非致命伤害成本的降低百分比将与死亡人数的减少情况相对应。我们利用1990年至2008年期间10年的撞车成本估计,来估算1990年至2009年的总撞车成本。这些成本是根据NHTSA对每次撞车成本的估计得出的。通过的州法律包括113项乘员保护法、131项酒后驾驶法和76项青少年驾驶法,外加一项联邦安全气囊强制规定。这些法律估计挽救了12万人的生命。随着有效法律数量的增加,挽救生命的效益加速显现。到2009年,它们使撞车死亡人数减少了25%。最大的挽救生命效益来自安全气囊、安全带使用和酒后驾驶法律。影响特定小众群体的法律影响较为有限。这些法律使保险成本降低了超过2100亿美元,并为政府节省了约420亿美元。包括生活质量损失的价值在内,估计节省超过1.3万亿美元。立法宣传确实是安全引擎中的火花塞。