Zaloshnja Eduard, Miller Ted R
Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Calverton, Maryland, USA.
Ann Adv Automot Med. 2009 Oct;53:141-53.
This is the first study to estimate the cost of crashes related to road conditions in the U.S. To model the probability that road conditions contributed to the involvement of a vehicle in the crash, we used 2000-03 Large Truck Crash Causation Study (LTCCS) data, the only dataset that provides detailed information whether road conditions contributed to crash occurrence. We applied the logistic regression results to a costed national crash dataset in order to calculate the probability that road conditions contributed to the involvement of a vehicle in each crash. In crashes where someone was moderately to seriously injured (AIS-2-6) in a vehicle that harmfully impacted a large tree or medium or large non-breakaway pole, or if the first harmful event was collision with a bridge, we changed the calculated probability of being road-related to 1. We used the state distribution of costs of fatal crashes where road conditions contributed to crash occurrence or severity to estimate the respective state distribution of non-fatal crash costs. The estimated comprehensive cost of traffic crashes where road conditions contributed to crash occurrence or severity was $217.5 billion in 2006. This represented 43.6% of the total comprehensive crash cost. The large share of crash costs related to road design and conditions underlines the importance of these factors in highway safety. Road conditions are largely controllable. Road maintenance and upgrading can prevent crashes and reduce injury severity.
这是第一项估算美国与道路状况相关的撞车事故成本的研究。为了模拟道路状况导致车辆卷入撞车事故的概率，我们使用了2000 - 2003年大型卡车撞车事故因果关系研究（LTCCS）数据，这是唯一能提供道路状况是否导致撞车事故发生的详细信息的数据集。我们将逻辑回归结果应用于一个已计算成本的全国撞车事故数据集，以计算道路状况导致车辆卷入每起撞车事故的概率。在车辆与大树、中型或大型不可分离式电线杆发生有害碰撞且有人受到中度至重度伤害（AIS - 2 - 6）的撞车事故中，或者如果第一个有害事件是与桥梁碰撞，我们将计算出的与道路相关的概率改为1。我们使用道路状况导致撞车事故发生或严重程度的致命撞车事故成本的州分布情况来估算非致命撞车事故成本的相应州分布。2006年，道路状况导致撞车事故发生或严重程度的交通撞车事故的估计综合成本为2175亿美元。这占总综合撞车事故成本的43.6%。与道路设计和状况相关的撞车事故成本占比很大，凸显了这些因素在公路安全中的重要性。道路状况在很大程度上是可控的。道路维护和升级可以预防撞车事故并降低伤害严重程度。
