University of California, Berkeley, USA.
Popul Stud (Camb). 2012 Mar;66(1):1-28. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2011.611411. Epub 2011 Dec 13.
Mortality estimates for many populations are derived using model life tables, which describe typical age patterns of human mortality. We propose a new system of model life tables as a means of improving the quality and transparency of such estimates. A flexible two-dimensional model was fitted to a collection of life tables from the Human Mortality Database. The model can be used to estimate full life tables given one or two pieces of information: child mortality only, or child and adult mortality. Using life tables from a variety of sources, we have compared the performance of new and old methods. The new model outperforms the Coale-Demeny and UN model life tables. Estimation errors are similar to those produced by the modified Brass logit procedure. The proposed model is better suited to the practical needs of mortality estimation, since both input parameters are continuous yet the second one is optional.
许多人群的死亡率估计是使用模型生命表得出的，这些生命表描述了人类死亡率的典型年龄模式。我们提出了一种新的模型生命表系统，作为提高这些估计质量和透明度的一种手段。我们将一个灵活的二维模型拟合到人类死亡率数据库中的一组生命表中。该模型可以用于根据一条或两条信息来估计完整的生命表：仅儿童死亡率，或儿童和成人死亡率。使用来自各种来源的生命表，我们比较了新旧方法的性能。新模型优于考尔-德梅尼和联合国生命表。估计误差与经过修正的 Brass 对数概率模型产生的误差相似。所提出的模型更适合死亡率估计的实际需要，因为两个输入参数都是连续的，但第二个是可选的。
