University of Oxford, UK.
J Med Screen. 2011;18(4):210-2. doi: 10.1258/jms.2011.011134.
The number of women who would need to be screened regularly by mammography to prevent one death from breast cancer depends strongly on several factors, including the age at which regular screening starts, the period over which it continues, and the duration of follow-up after screening. Furthermore, more women would need to be INVITED for screening than would need to be SCREENED to prevent one death, since not all women invited attend for screening or are screened regularly. Failure to consider these important factors accounts for many of the major discrepancies between different published estimates. The randomised evidence indicates that, in high income countries, around one breast cancer death would be prevented in the long term for every 400 women aged 50-70 years regularly screened over a ten-year period.
需要通过乳房 X 光筛查定期检查以预防乳腺癌死亡的女性人数,取决于多个因素,包括定期筛查开始的年龄、持续时间以及筛查后的随访时间。此外,需要邀请更多的女性进行筛查,而不是需要进行筛查,因为不是所有受邀的女性都会参加筛查或定期接受筛查。未能考虑到这些重要因素,是导致不同已发表的估计值之间存在重大差异的原因之一。随机证据表明,在高收入国家,在长达十年的时间里,每 400 名年龄在 50-70 岁之间定期接受筛查的女性中,大约会有 1 人因乳腺癌而死亡。