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同时缓解近期气候变化,改善人类健康和粮食安全。

Simultaneously mitigating near-term climate change and improving human health and food security.

机构信息

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA.

出版信息

Science. 2012 Jan 13;335(6065):183-9. doi: 10.1126/science.1210026.

Abstract

Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC) contribute to both degraded air quality and global warming. We considered ~400 emission control measures to reduce these pollutants by using current technology and experience. We identified 14 measures targeting methane and BC emissions that reduce projected global mean warming ~0.5°C by 2050. This strategy avoids 0.7 to 4.7 million annual premature deaths from outdoor air pollution and increases annual crop yields by 30 to 135 million metric tons due to ozone reductions in 2030 and beyond. Benefits of methane emissions reductions are valued at $700 to $5000 per metric ton, which is well above typical marginal abatement costs (less than $250). The selected controls target different sources and influence climate on shorter time scales than those of carbon dioxide-reduction measures. Implementing both substantially reduces the risks of crossing the 2°C threshold.

摘要

对流层臭氧和黑碳(BC)既导致空气质量恶化,也导致全球变暖。我们考虑了大约 400 种排放控制措施,利用现有技术和经验来减少这些污染物。我们确定了 14 项针对甲烷和 BC 排放的措施,这些措施将使 2050 年全球平均变暖幅度降低约 0.5°C。该策略避免了 700 万至 4700 万人因户外空气污染而过早死亡,并且由于臭氧减少,到 2030 年及以后,每年的作物产量增加了 3 亿至 1.35 亿吨。甲烷减排的效益价值为每吨 700 美元至 5000 美元,远高于典型的边际减排成本(低于 250 美元)。选定的控制措施针对不同的来源,并对气候产生影响的时间尺度短于二氧化碳减排措施。同时实施这些措施将大大降低超过 2°C 阈值的风险。

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