Cambridge Environmental, Inc, 58 Charles Street, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02141, United States.
Environ Sci Technol. 2012 Mar 6;46(5):2538-44. doi: 10.1021/es204310j. Epub 2012 Feb 8.
The current paradigm for cancer risk assessment in the United States (U.S.) typically requires selection of representative rodent bioassay dose-response data for extrapolation to a single cancer potency estimate for humans. In the absence of extensive further information, the chosen bioassay result generally is taken to be that which gives the highest extrapolated result from the "most sensitive" species or strain. The estimated human cancer potency is thus derived from an upper-bound value on animal cancer potency that is technically similar to an extreme value statistic. Thus additional information from further bioassays can only lead to equal or larger cancer potency estimates. We here calculate the size of this effect using the collected results of a large number of bioassays. Since many standards are predicated on the value of the cancer potency, this effect is undesirable in producing a strong counter-incentive to performing further bioassays.
目前，美国（U.S.）癌症风险评估的范式通常需要选择具有代表性的啮齿动物生物测定剂量反应数据，以便外推至人类的单一癌症效力估计值。在缺乏广泛的进一步信息的情况下，通常选择给出“最敏感”物种或品系的最高外推结果的生物测定结果。因此，人类癌症效力的估计值是从动物癌症效力的上限值推导而来的，该值在技术上类似于极值统计值。因此，进一步的生物测定的更多信息只能导致相等或更大的癌症效力估计值。我们在这里使用大量生物测定的收集结果来计算这种效应的大小。由于许多标准都取决于癌症效力的值，因此在产生强烈的反激励来进行进一步的生物测定方面，这种效应是不理想的。
