预测不断延长的预期寿命：意味着什么？

Forecasting continuously increasing life expectancy: what implications?

机构信息

Université Paul-Sabatier, Centre de Recherche sur la Cognition Animale, UMR CNRS, Toulouse, France.

出版信息

Ageing Res Rev. 2012 Apr;11(2):325-8. doi: 10.1016/j.arr.2012.01.002. Epub 2012 Feb 1.

DOI:10.1016/j.arr.2012.01.002

Abstract

It has been proposed that life expectancy could linearly increase in the next decades and that median longevity of the youngest birth cohorts could reach 105 years or more. These forecasts have been criticized but it seems that their implications for future maximal lifespan (i.e. the lifespan of the last survivors) have not been considered. These implications make these forecasts untenable and it is less risky to hypothesize that life expectancy and maximal lifespan will reach an asymptotic limit in some decades from now.

摘要

有人提出，在未来几十年中，预期寿命可能会呈线性增长，而最年轻的出生队列的中位数寿命可能会达到 105 岁或更长。这些预测受到了批评，但似乎没有人考虑过它们对未来最大寿命（即最后幸存者的寿命）的影响。这些影响使得这些预测站不住脚，因此假设从现在开始的几十年内，预期寿命和最大寿命将达到一个渐近极限，这种假设的风险更小。