Olshansky S J, Carnes B A, Cassel C
Department of Medicine, University of Chicago, IL.
Science. 1990 Nov 2;250(4981):634-40. doi: 10.1126/science.2237414.
Estimates of the upper limits to human longevity have important policy implications that directly affect forecasts of life expectancy, active life expectancy, population aging, and social and medical programs tied to the size and health status of the elderly population. In the past, investigators have based speculations about the upper limits of human longevity on observations of past trends in mortality. Here the estimate of the upper bound is based on hypothesized reductions in current mortality rates necessary to achieve a life expectancy at birth from 80 to 120 years and an expectation of life at age 50 from 30 to 70 years. With the use of conditional probabilities of death from complete life tables for the United States, reductions in mortality required to achieve extreme longevity (that is, 80 to 120 years) were compared with those resulting from hypothetical cures for all cardiovascular diseases, ischemic heart disease, diabetes, and cancer. Results indicate that in order for life expectancy at birth to increase from present levels to what has been referred to as the average biological limit to life (age 85), mortality rates from all causes of death would need to decline at all ages by 55%, and at ages 50 and over by 60%. Given that hypothetical cures for major degenerative diseases would reduce overall mortality by 75%, it seems highly unlikely that life expectancy at birth will exceed the age of 85.
对人类寿命上限的估计具有重要的政策意义，直接影响到预期寿命、健康预期寿命、人口老龄化以及与老年人口规模和健康状况相关的社会和医疗项目的预测。过去，研究人员基于对过去死亡率趋势的观察来推测人类寿命的上限。在此，上限的估计是基于假设当前死亡率降低，以实现出生时预期寿命从80岁提高到120岁，以及50岁时预期寿命从30岁提高到70岁。利用美国完整生命表中的死亡条件概率，将实现超长寿命（即80至120岁）所需的死亡率降低与假设治愈所有心血管疾病、缺血性心脏病、糖尿病和癌症所导致的死亡率降低进行了比较。结果表明，为了使出生时预期寿命从目前水平提高到所谓的平均生物寿命极限（85岁），所有死因的死亡率在各年龄段都需要下降55%，在50岁及以上年龄段需要下降60%。鉴于假设治愈主要退行性疾病将使总体死亡率降低75%，出生时预期寿命似乎极不可能超过85岁。
