Deaton Angus
Center for Health and Well-being Princeton University.
Oxf Econ Pap. 2012 Jan;64(1):1-26. doi: 10.1093/oep/gpr051.
The Great Recession was associated with large changes in income, wealth, and unemployment, changes that affected many lives. Since January 2008, the Gallup Organization has been collecting daily data on 1,000 Americans each day, with a range of self-reported well-being (SWB) questions. I use these data to examine how the recession affected the emotional and evaluative lives of the population, as well as of subgroups within it. In the fall of 2008, around the time of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, and lasting into the spring of 2009, at the bottom of the stock market, Americans reported sharp declines in their life evaluation, sharp increases in worry and stress, and declines in positive affect. By the end of 2010, in spite of continuing high unemployment, these measures had largely recovered, though worry remained higher and life evaluation lower than in January 2008. The SWB measures do a much better job of monitoring short-run levels of anxiety as the crisis unfolded than they do of reflecting the evolution of the economy over a year or two. Even large macroeconomic shocks to income and unemployment can be expected to produce only small and hard to detect effects on SWB measures. SWB, particularly evaluation of life as a whole, is sensitive to question order effects. Asking political questions before the life evaluation question reduces reported life evaluation by an amount that dwarfs the effects of even the worst of the crisis; these order effects persist deep into the interview, and condition the reporting of hedonic experience and of satisfaction with standard of living. Methods for controlling these effects need to be developed and tested if national measures are to be comparable over space and time.
大衰退与收入、财富和失业率的巨大变化相关,这些变化影响了许多人的生活。自2008年1月以来,盖洛普组织每天收集1000名美国人的数据,并提出一系列关于自我报告幸福感(SWB)的问题。我利用这些数据来研究衰退如何影响民众以及其中各亚群体的情绪和评价生活。2008年秋季,在雷曼兄弟倒闭前后,一直持续到2009年春季股市谷底时,美国人报告他们的生活评价急剧下降,担忧和压力大幅增加,积极情绪减少。到2010年底,尽管失业率持续居高不下,但这些指标已基本恢复,不过担忧程度仍高于2008年1月,生活评价则低于当时。在危机展开时,SWB指标在监测短期焦虑水平方面比反映一两年内的经济演变做得更好。即使是对收入和失业率的巨大宏观经济冲击,预计对SWB指标也只会产生微小且难以察觉的影响。SWB,尤其是对整体生活的评价,对问题顺序效应很敏感。在生活评价问题之前询问政治问题,会使报告的生活评价降低,其幅度甚至超过最严重危机的影响;这些顺序效应在访谈中持续存在,并影响享乐体验和对生活水平满意度的报告。如果要使全国性指标在不同空间和时间具有可比性,就需要开发和测试控制这些效应的方法。
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