College of Public Health, Division of Environmental Health Sciences, The Ohio State University, 1841 Neil Avenue, Columbus, Ohio 43210-1351, United States.
Environ Sci Technol. 2012 Apr 17;46(8):4523-31. doi: 10.1021/es203962u. Epub 2012 Mar 21.
Current approaches for assessing human health risks associated with cyanotoxins often rely on the quantification of microcystin. Significant limitations of current approaches are cost and time to obtain a result. To address these challenges, a numerical index for screening microcystin risks above the World Health Organization's (WHO) low-risk threshold for microcystin was developed for eutrophic Midwestern U.S. lakes based on water quality results from 182 beach water samples collected from seven Ohio lakes. In 48 (26.4%) samples we observed microcystin concentrations as measured by ELISA that exceeded the 4 μg/L microcystin threshold. A multivariable logistic regression model using practical real-time measures of in vivo phycocyanin (by fluorometry) and secchi depth was constructed to estimate the probability of a beach sample exceeding 4 μg/L microcystin. The final model achieved statistical significance (p = 0.030) as well as good calibration (as measured by the goodness-of-fit test comparing observed to expected counts within deciles of risk based on the model, p = 0.329) and discrimination (as indicated by the area under the receiver-operator-curve (0.795)). These results demonstrate two rapid and practical measures of recreational water quality are effective in identifying "at risk" lake conditions warranting additional management (e.g., advisory and/or advanced testing).
目前评估与蓝藻毒素相关的人类健康风险的方法通常依赖于微囊藻毒素的定量。目前方法的显著局限性在于成本和获得结果的时间。为了解决这些挑战，根据从俄亥俄州七个湖泊的 182 个海滩水样中收集的水质结果，为富营养化的美国中西部湖泊开发了一种用于筛选微囊藻毒素风险的数值指数，该指数高于世界卫生组织（WHO）对微囊藻毒素的低风险阈值。在 48 个（26.4%）样本中，我们观察到 ELISA 测量的微囊藻毒素浓度超过了 4μg/L 的微囊藻毒素阈值。使用实用的实时活体藻蓝蛋白（荧光法）和水色深度的多变量逻辑回归模型来估计海滩样本超过 4μg/L 微囊藻毒素的概率。最终模型达到了统计学意义（p=0.030），并且具有良好的校准（通过拟合优度检验进行测量，该检验将基于模型的风险十分位数内的观察到的和预期的计数进行比较，p=0.329）和区分度（由接收者操作特征曲线下的面积表示（0.795））。这些结果表明，两种快速实用的娱乐用水质量措施可有效识别“有风险”的湖泊条件，需要进行额外的管理（例如，咨询和/或高级测试）。
