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评估北京 2008 年奥运会期间 PM2.5 排放控制效果的统计模型。

A statistical model to evaluate the effectiveness of PM2.5 emissions control during the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games.

机构信息

Emory University, Rollins School of Public Health, 1518 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, GA 30322, USA.

出版信息

Environ Int. 2012 Sep;44:100-5. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2012.02.003. Epub 2012 Mar 9.

Abstract

A statistical model was developed using satellite remote sensing data and meteorological parameters to evaluate the effectiveness of air pollution control measures during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games. Custom satellite retrievals under hazy conditions were included in the modeling dataset to represent the air pollution levels more accurately. This model explained 70% of the PM(2.5) variability during the modeling period from June to October 2008. Using this tool, we estimate that the aggressive emission reduction measures alone effectively lowered PM(2.5) levels by 20-24 μg/m(3) or 27-33% on average during the Games period, which is substantially greater than those reported previously. Since parameters required to develop this model are readily available in most cities of the world, it can be quickly applied after other major events to evaluate air pollution control policy.

摘要

建立了一个统计模型,利用卫星遥感数据和气象参数来评估 2008 年北京奥运会期间空气污染控制措施的有效性。该模型的数据集中包含了有雾条件下的自定义卫星反演数据,以更准确地表示空气污染水平。该模型解释了 2008 年 6 月至 10 月建模期间 70%的 PM(2.5)变化。利用这一工具,我们估计仅通过采取积极的减排措施,在奥运会期间,PM(2.5)水平就平均有效降低了 20-24μg/m(3)或 27-33%,这大大高于之前的报告值。由于开发该模型所需的参数在世界上大多数城市都很容易获得,因此在其他重大活动后可以迅速应用该模型来评估空气污染控制政策。

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