Risk of smoking and body mass index for incidence of diabetes mellitus in a rural Japanese population.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the risk of smoking, body mass index (BMI), and both for incidence of diabetes in a rural Japanese population.

METHOD

This study was a 10.1-year cohort study of 2070 men and 3802 women aged 40-69 years without diabetes at baseline who underwent a health check-up at one central hospital in Nagano Prefecture. Participants were classified according to a combination of smoking status and BMI. Participants were followed from 1990 to 2006. The incidence of diabetes was determined from fasting and random levels of plasma glucose, HbA(1c) levels or being under medical treatment for diabetes.

RESULTS

Diabetes developed in 595 of the participants during 59,111 person-years of follow-up. In men, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for incidence of diabetes compared with non-smokers of normal weight were as follows: 3.36 (2.02-5.60) in current smokers with normal weight and 1.70 (0.87-3.34) and 3.93 (2.22-6.96) in obese non-smokers and obese current smokers, respectively. In men the population-attributable fraction of diabetes onset due to current smoking, obesity and both were 22.0%, 2.5% and 11.2%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Regardless of BMI, smoking is an important risk factor for diabetes in male populations with a high prevalence of smoking.