Institute for International Trade Negotiations (ICONE) , 740 General Furtado do Nascimento, suite 81, Sao Paulo 05465-070 , Brazil.
Interface Focus. 2011 Apr 6;1(2):224-32. doi: 10.1098/rsfs.2010.0043. Epub 2011 Feb 9.
The use of agricultural-based biofuels has expanded. Discussions on how to assess green house gas (GHG) emissions from biofuel policies, specifically on (non-observed) land-use change (LUC) effects involve two main topics: (i) the limitations on the existing methodologies, and (ii) how to isolate the effects of biofuels. This paper discusses the main methodologies currently used by policy-makers to take decisions on how to quantify LUCs owing to biofuel production expansion. It is our opinion that the concerns regarding GHG emissions associated with LUCs should focus on the agricultural sector as a whole rather than concentrating on biofuel production. Actually, there are several limitations of economic models and deterministic methodologies for simulating and explaining LUCs resulting from the expansion of the agricultural sector. However, it is equally true that there are avenues of possibilities to improve models and make them more accurate and precise in order to be used for policy-making. Models available need several improvements to reach perfection. Any top model requires a concentration of interdisciplinary designers in order to replicate empirical evidence and capture correctly the agricultural sector dynamics for different countries and regions. Forgetting those limitations means that models will be used for the wrong purposes.
农业生物燃料的使用已经扩大。关于如何评估生物燃料政策的温室气体（GHG）排放，特别是（未观测到的）土地利用变化（LUC）效应的讨论涉及两个主要主题：（i）现有方法的局限性，以及（ii）如何隔离生物燃料的影响。本文讨论了政策制定者目前用于就如何量化生物燃料生产扩张导致的土地利用变化（LUC）所使用的主要方法。我们认为，与土地利用变化相关的温室气体排放的关切应该集中在农业部门作为一个整体，而不是集中在生物燃料生产上。实际上，经济模型和确定性方法在模拟和解释农业部门扩张导致的土地利用变化方面存在着一些局限性。然而，同样真实的是，有几种可能性可以改进模型，使它们更准确和精确，以便用于决策。现有的模型需要进行一些改进才能达到完美。任何顶级模型都需要集中跨学科的设计师，以便复制经验证据，并正确捕捉不同国家和地区的农业部门动态。如果忽略这些局限性，那么模型将被用于错误的目的。
