Department of Geography, Public Health Institute, Porto University, CITTA, Via Panorâmica s/nº, 4150-564 Porto, Portugal.
Int J Biometeorol. 2013 Jan;57(1):155-67. doi: 10.1007/s00484-012-0543-9. Epub 2012 May 1.
The purpose of this study was to understand the effects of the July 2006 heat wave through the use of the heat index, in mortality (all causes) and morbidity (all causes, respiratory and circulatory diseases) in general, and in people over 74 years and by gender, in Porto. In this paper, the Poisson generalized additive regression model was used to estimate the impact of apparent temperature (heat index) and daily mortality and morbidity during the July 2006 heat wave. Daily mortality, morbidity and heat index were correlated with lags of apparent temperature up to 7 days using Pearson correlation. For a 1°C increase in mean apparent temperature we observed a 2.7 % (95 % CI: 1.7-3.6 %) increase in mortality (all cause), a 1.7 % (95 % CI: 0.6-2.9 %) increase in respiratory morbidity, a 2.2 % (95 % CI: 0.4-4.1 %) increase in respiratory morbidity in women, a 5.4 % (95%CI: 1.1-6.6 %) increase in chronic obstructive pulmonary morbidity, and a 7.5 % (95 % CI: 1.3-14.1 %) increase in chronic obstructive pulmonary morbidity in women, for the entire population. For people ≥ 75 years, our results showed a 3.3 % increase (95 % CI: 1.7-5.0 %) in respiratory morbidity, a 2.7 % (95 % CI: 0.4-5.1 %) increase in respiratory morbidity in men, a 3.9 % (95 %CI: 1.6-6.3 %) increase in respiratory morbidity in women, a 7.0 % (95 % CI: 1.1-13.2 %) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and a 9.0 % (95 % CI: 0.3-18.5 %) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in women. The use of heat index in a Mediterranean tempered climate enabled the identification of the effects of the July 2006 heat wave in mortality due to all causes and in respiratory morbidity of the general population, as well as in respiratory morbidity of individuals with more than 74 years of age.
本研究旨在通过使用热指数了解 2006 年 7 月热浪的影响，主要涉及死亡率（所有原因）和发病率（所有原因、呼吸和循环系统疾病），以及 74 岁以上人群和不同性别人群的死亡率和发病率。本文使用泊松广义加性回归模型来估计 2006 年 7 月热浪期间明显温度（热指数）和每日死亡率和发病率的影响。使用皮尔逊相关系数对每日死亡率、发病率和热指数与明显温度滞后 7 天进行相关性分析。平均明显温度每升高 1°C，我们观察到总死亡率（所有原因）增加 2.7%（95%CI：1.7-3.6%），女性呼吸发病率增加 1.7%（95%CI：0.6-2.9%），女性呼吸发病率增加 2.2%（95%CI：0.4-4.1%），慢性阻塞性肺病发病率增加 5.4%（95%CI：1.1-6.6%），女性慢性阻塞性肺病发病率增加 7.5%（95%CI：1.3-14.1%）。对于整个人群。对于≥75 岁的人群，我们的结果显示呼吸发病率增加 3.3%（95%CI：1.7-5.0%），男性呼吸发病率增加 2.7%（95%CI：0.4-5.1%），女性呼吸发病率增加 3.9%（95%CI：1.6-6.3%），慢性阻塞性肺病发病率增加 7.0%（95%CI：1.1-13.2%），女性慢性阻塞性肺病发病率增加 9.0%（95%CI：0.3-18.5%）。在温和气候的地中海气候中使用热指数，可以确定 2006 年 7 月热浪对所有原因导致的死亡率和普通人群呼吸发病率的影响，以及 74 岁以上人群的呼吸发病率。
