Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, District of Columbia 20057, USA.
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2012 May;86(5):884-94. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.2012.11-0342.
Temperature has played a critical role in the spatiotemporal dynamics of West Nile virus transmission throughout California from its introduction in 2003 through establishment by 2009. We compared two novel mechanistic measures of transmission risk, the temperature-dependent ratio of virus extrinsic incubation period to the mosquito gonotrophic period (BT), and the fundamental reproductive ratio (R(0)) based on a mathematical model, to analyze spatiotemporal patterns of receptivity to viral amplification. Maps of BT and R(0) were created at 20-km scale and compared throughout California to seroconversions in sentinel chicken flocks at half-month intervals. Overall, estimates of BT and R(0) agreed with intensity of transmission measured by the frequency of sentinel chicken seroconversions. Mechanistic measures such as these are important for understanding how temperature affects the spatiotemporal dynamics of West Nile virus transmission and for delineating risk estimates useful to inform vector control agency intervention decisions and communicate outbreak potential.
温度在 2003 年西尼罗河病毒传入加利福尼亚州，到 2009 年确立传播的时空动态中发挥了关键作用。我们比较了两种新型的传播风险机制措施，即病毒外潜伏期与蚊子生殖期的温度依赖性比值（BT）和基于数学模型的基本繁殖率（R(0)），以分析对病毒扩增的接受程度的时空模式。在 20 公里的尺度上创建了 BT 和 R(0)的地图，并与加利福尼亚州的情况进行了比较，同时每隔半个月监测哨兵鸡群中的血清转换情况。总的来说，BT 和 R(0)的估计值与通过哨兵鸡血清转换的频率测量的传播强度一致。这些机制措施对于理解温度如何影响西尼罗河病毒传播的时空动态以及确定有助于向蚊虫控制机构干预决策提供信息和传播潜力的风险估计值非常重要。
