Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA.
J Exp Psychol Appl. 2012 Jun;18(2):e1-16. doi: 10.1037/a0027959.
The authors examined the evolution of cognitive and emotional responses to terror risks for a nationally representative sample of Americans between late 2001 and late 2002. Respondents' risk judgments changed in ways consistent with their reported personal experiences. However, they did not recognize these changes, producing hindsight bias in memories for their judgments. An intensive debiasing procedure failed to restore a foresightful perspective. A fear-inducing manipulation increased risk estimates, whereas an anger-inducing manipulation reduced them-both in predictions (as previously observed) and in memories and judgments of past risks. Thus, priming emotions shaped not only perceptions of an abstract future but also perceptions of a concrete past. These results suggest how psychological research can help to ensure an informed public.
作者研究了 2001 年底至 2002 年底期间，全美代表性样本对恐怖风险的认知和情绪反应的演变。受访者的风险判断以与其报告的个人经历一致的方式发生了变化。然而，他们并没有意识到这些变化，从而对自己的判断产生了后见之明偏差。尽管进行了强化去偏处理，但仍未能恢复前瞻性视角。诱发恐惧的操作会增加风险估计，而诱发愤怒的操作则会降低风险估计——这既适用于预测（如先前观察到的），也适用于对过去风险的记忆和判断。因此，情绪启动不仅塑造了对抽象未来的感知，也塑造了对具体过去的感知。这些结果表明，心理学研究如何有助于确保公众知情。
