Rheumatology Department, Military Hospital Mohammed V, PO box 1018, Rabat, Morocco.
Osteoporos Int. 2013 Apr;24(4):1267-73. doi: 10.1007/s00198-012-2061-3. Epub 2012 Jun 27.
This study, characterizing the incidence of hip fracture in the province of Rabat, showed that age- and sex-specific rates remained stable between 2006 and 2009. The demographic projections estimated for Morocco indicate that between 2010 and 2030, the expected annual number of hip fractures would increase about twofold.
No data on hip fracture incidence trends exist from Africa. The aim of the study was to determine time trends in hip fracture rates for the province of Rabat and to forecast the number of hip fractures expected in Morocco up to 2030.
All hip fracture cases registered during the years 2006-2009 were collected at all the public hospitals and private clinics with a trauma unit and/or a permanent orthopedic surgeon across the province.
Over the 4-year period, 723 (54.3%) hip fractures were recorded in women and 607 (45.6%) in men. The age- and gender-specific incidence of hip fracture rose steeply with advancing age. Hip fractures occurred later in women 75.0 (10.7) years than in men 73.3 (11.0) years (p=0.014), and its incidence was higher in women than in men [85.9 (95% CI 79.7-92.2) per 100,000 person-years vs. 72.7 (95% CI 66.9-78.5)]. The incidence remained globally stable over the period study, and the linear regression analysis showed no significant statistical difference. For the year 2010, there were 4,327 hip fractures estimated in Morocco (53.3% in women). Assuming no change in the age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture from 2010 to 2030, the number of hip fractures in men is expected to increase progressively from 2,019 to 3,961 and from 2,308 to 4,259 in women.
The age-specific incidence of hip fracture between the years 2006 and 2009 remained stable in Morocco, and the number of expected hip fractures would double between 2010 and 2030.
本研究旨在确定拉巴特省髋部骨折的发病率趋势，并预测摩洛哥 2030 年之前的髋部骨折预期数量。
收集 2006 年至 2009 年期间所有公立和私立医院的髋部骨折病例，这些医院设有创伤科和/或常驻骨科医生。
在 4 年期间，共记录了 723 例（54.3%）女性和 607 例（45.6%）男性髋部骨折病例。髋部骨折的年龄和性别特定发病率随年龄增长急剧上升。女性髋部骨折发生的年龄较男性晚，女性为 75.0（10.7）岁，男性为 73.3（11.0）岁（p=0.014），女性的发病率高于男性[85.9（95%CI 79.7-92.2）/100,000 人年比 72.7（95%CI 66.9-78.5）]。研究期间，发病率总体保持稳定，线性回归分析显示无统计学差异。2010 年，摩洛哥预计有 4327 例髋部骨折（女性占 53.3%）。假设 2010 年至 2030 年髋部骨折的年龄和性别特定发病率不变，男性髋部骨折的数量预计将从 2019 年的 2019 例增加到 2030 年的 3961 例，女性从 2308 例增加到 4259 例。
摩洛哥 2006 年至 2009 年期间的年龄特异性髋部骨折发病率保持稳定，2010 年至 2030 年期间的预期髋部骨折数量将增加一倍。
