WHO Collaborating Centre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Beech Hill Road, Sheffield, S10 2RX, UK.
Osteoporos Int. 2011 Aug;22(8):2359-64. doi: 10.1007/s00198-010-1475-z. Epub 2010 Dec 21.
This study, characterising the incidence of hip fracture in Mexico, showed that age- and sex-specific rates increased between 2000 and 2006. The demographic changes estimated for Mexico indicate that the annual number of hip fractures will rise from 29,732 in 2005 to 155,874 in 2050. If the age-specific incidence of hip fracture continues, the number of hip fractures would increase by a further 46%.
The aim of the present study was to determine time trends, if any, in hip fracture rates for Mexico and to forecast the number of hip fractures expected in Mexico over the coming years up to 2050.
All hip fracture cases registered during the years 2000-2006 were collected at all the second and tertiary-care hospitals across the country from one of the largest health systems in Mexico, The Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS).
Between the years 2000 and 2006, the age-specific incidence of hip fracture increased significantly both for men and women by 1% per year (p = 0.016 and p < 0.001, respectively). In 2005, there were there were 29,732 hip fractures estimated in Mexico, 68% of which were found in women. Assuming no change in the age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture, the number of hip fractures was expected to increase markedly with time to 155,874 in 2050. Assuming that the age-specific incidence continues, the number of hip fractures in men and women would increase by a further 46% to 226,886 in 2050.
Demographic changes estimated for Mexico indicate that the annual number of hip fractures will rise from 29,732 in 2005 to 155,874 expected in 2050. If the age-specific incidence of hip fracture continues to rise, the number of hip fractures would increase by a further 46%.
本研究旨在确定墨西哥髋部骨折发生率的时间趋势，并预测未来至 2050 年期间墨西哥髋部骨折的预期数量。
从墨西哥最大的医疗保健系统之一——墨西哥社会保险研究所（IMSS）的全国所有二级和三级保健医院收集了 2000 年至 2006 年期间所有髋部骨折病例。
在 2000 年至 2006 年期间，男性和女性的髋部骨折年龄特异性发生率均以每年 1%的速度显著增加（p=0.016 和 p<0.001，分别）。2005 年，墨西哥估计有 29732 例髋部骨折，其中 68%发生在女性。假设髋部骨折的年龄和性别特异性发生率没有变化，预计到 2050 年，髋部骨折的数量将显著增加到 155874 例。假设年龄特异性发生率持续增加，男性和女性的髋部骨折数量将再增加 46%，至 2050 年的 226886 例。
为墨西哥估计的人口变化表明，每年髋部骨折的数量将从 2005 年的 29732 例增加到 2050 年预计的 155874 例。如果髋部骨折的年龄特异性发生率继续上升，髋部骨折的数量将再增加 46%。
