Wageningen Food Safety Research, 6708 WB Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Toxins (Basel). 2021 Apr 12;13(4):276. doi: 10.3390/toxins13040276.
Our climate is projected to change gradually over time. Mycotoxin occurrence in cereal grains is both directly and indirectly related to local weather and to climate changes. Direct routes are via the effects of precipitation, relative humidity, and temperatures on both fungal infection of the grain and mycotoxin formation. Indirect routes are via the effects of the wind dispersal of spores, insect attacks, and shifts in cereal grain phenology. This review aimed to investigate available modeling studies for climate change impacts on mycotoxins in cereal grains, and to identify how they can be used to safeguard food safety with future climate change. Using a systematic review approach, in total, 53 relevant papers from the period of 2005-2020 were retrieved. Only six of them focused on quantitative modeling of climate change impacts on mycotoxins, all in pre-harvest cereal grains. Although regional differences exist, the model results generally show an increase in mycotoxins in a changing climate. The models do not give an indication on how to adapt to climate change impacts. If available models were linked with land use and crop models, scenario analyses could be used for analyzing adaptation strategies to avoid high mycotoxin presence in cereal grains and to safeguard the safety of our feed and food.
我们的气候预计会随时间逐渐发生变化。谷物中的真菌毒素的出现与局部天气和气候变化既直接相关，也间接相关。直接途径是通过降水、相对湿度和温度对谷物的真菌侵染和真菌毒素形成的影响。间接途径是通过孢子的风传播、昆虫攻击以及谷物物候的变化。本综述旨在调查气候变化对谷物中真菌毒素影响的现有建模研究，并确定如何利用这些研究在未来气候变化中保障食品安全。采用系统综述方法，共检索到 2005-2020 年期间的 53 篇相关论文。其中只有 6 篇专注于定量建模研究气候变化对真菌毒素的影响，而且均在收获前的谷物中进行。尽管存在地区差异，但模型结果普遍表明，在气候变化中真菌毒素会增加。这些模型并没有表明如何适应气候变化的影响。如果可利用的模型与土地利用和作物模型相联系，情景分析可用于分析适应策略，以避免谷物中存在高浓度的真菌毒素，并保障我们的饲料和食品的安全。
