Dionisio Kathie L, Nolte Christopher G, Spero Tanya L, Graham Stephen, Caraway Nina, Foley Kristen M, Isaacs Kristin K
National Exposure Research Laboratory, Office of Research and Development, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA.
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, USA.
J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol. 2017 May;27(3):260-270. doi: 10.1038/jes.2016.81. Epub 2017 Jan 25.
The impact of climate change on human and environmental health is of critical concern. Population exposures to air pollutants both indoors and outdoors are influenced by a wide range of air quality, meteorological, behavioral, and housing-related factors, many of which are also impacted by climate change. An integrated methodology for modeling changes in human exposures to tropospheric ozone (O) owing to potential future changes in climate and demographics was implemented by linking existing modeling tools for climate, weather, air quality, population distribution, and human exposure. Human exposure results from the Air Pollutants Exposure Model (APEX) for 12 US cities show differences in daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) exposure patterns and levels by sex, age, and city for all scenarios. When climate is held constant and population demographics are varied, minimal difference in O exposures is predicted even with the most extreme demographic change scenario. In contrast, when population is held constant, we see evidence of substantial changes in O exposure for the most extreme change in climate. Similarly, we see increases in the percentage of the population in each city with at least one O exposure exceedance above 60 p.p.b and 70 p.p.b thresholds for future changes in climate. For these climate and population scenarios, the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposure to O are much larger than the impacts of changing demographics. These results indicate the potential for future changes in O exposure as a result of changes in climate that could impact human health.
气候变化对人类和环境健康的影响是至关重要的关注点。室内和室外人群暴露于空气污染物的情况受到广泛的空气质量、气象、行为和住房相关因素的影响，其中许多因素也受到气候变化的影响。通过将现有的气候、天气、空气质量、人口分布和人类暴露建模工具相链接，实施了一种综合方法来模拟由于未来气候和人口结构的潜在变化而导致的人类对流层臭氧（O）暴露的变化。美国12个城市的空气污染物暴露模型（APEX）得出的人类暴露结果显示，在所有情景下，按性别、年龄和城市划分的每日最大8小时（DM8H）暴露模式和水平存在差异。当气候保持不变而人口结构发生变化时，即使在最极端的人口结构变化情景下，预计臭氧暴露的差异也很小。相比之下，当人口保持不变时，我们看到在最极端的气候变化情况下，臭氧暴露有显著变化的证据。同样，对于未来气候变化，我们看到每个城市中至少有一次臭氧暴露超过60 ppb和70 ppb阈值的人口百分比有所增加。对于这些气候和人口情景，预计的气候和空气质量变化对人类臭氧暴露的影响远大于人口结构变化的影响。这些结果表明，由于气候变化可能会影响人类健康，未来臭氧暴露有可能发生变化。
