Accid Anal Prev. 2013 Jan;50:732-41. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2012.06.027. Epub 2012 Jul 24.
Driving licence holding in Britain is increasing for older people, particularly older women. Licence holding by men aged 40-69 has saturated at about 90%, and for women aged 30-59 at about 78%. Drivers begin to surrender licences after age 70. By age 90, 38% of women and 25% of men who held a licence at age 70 have surrendered their licences. The paper shows the numbers of car drivers of different ages killed and injured in accidents since 1975 and the fatality and casualty rates per driver and per mile driven. The safety of older drivers is improving faster than that of younger age groups. The number of car driver fatalities aged 70 and over was highest between 1990 and 2004, and has subsequently reduced by almost 40%. For drivers aged 80 and over, the peak was in 2004 and the number has subsequently reduced by almost 50%. The paper uses demographic projections, forecast licence holding and the trends in fatality rates to project the numbers of fatalities for drivers of different ages in Britain. This shows that fatalities among older drivers aged are likely to continue to reduce. Fatality rates for older road users are increased by the fragility of older persons. This disguises the fact that the accident involvement rate for older drivers does not increase with age until after age 75 or 80.
在英国，老年人，尤其是老年女性的驾照持有率不断上升。40-69 岁男性的驾照持有率已饱和在 90%左右，而 30-59 岁女性的驾照持有率约为 78%。70 岁以后，司机开始放弃驾照。到 90 岁时，70 岁时持有驾照的女性中有 38%，男性中有 25%已放弃驾照。本文展示了自 1975 年以来不同年龄段的汽车司机在事故中死亡和受伤的人数，以及每司机和每英里行驶的死亡率和事故率。老年司机的安全性提高速度快于年轻年龄段。70 岁及以上汽车司机的死亡人数在 1990 年至 2004 年间最高，此后减少了近 40%。对于 80 岁及以上的司机，高峰期在 2004 年，此后减少了近 50%。本文使用人口预测、预测驾照持有情况和死亡率趋势，预测英国不同年龄段司机的死亡人数。这表明，老年司机的死亡人数可能会继续减少。老年人道路使用者的死亡率因老年人的脆弱性而增加。这掩盖了一个事实，即老年司机的事故参与率在 75 或 80 岁之前不会随着年龄的增长而增加。
