Botsford L W, White J W, Coffroth M-A, Paris C B, Planes S, Shearer T L, Thorrold S R, Jones G P
Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California, Davis, One Shields Ave, Davis, CA, 95616, USA.
Coral Reefs. 2009 Jun;28(2):327-337. doi: 10.1007/s00338-009-0466-z.
Design and decision-making for marine protected areas (MPAs) on coral reefs require prediction of MPA effects with population models. Modeling of MPAs has shown how the persistence of metapopulations in systems of MPAs depends on the size and spacing of MPAs, and levels of fishing outside the MPAs. However, the pattern of demographic connectivity produced by larval dispersal is a key uncertainty in those modeling studies. The information required to assess population persistence is a dispersal matrix containing the fraction of larvae traveling to each location from each location, not just the current number of larvae exchanged among locations. Recent metapopulation modeling research with hypothetical dispersal matrices has shown how the spatial scale of dispersal, degree of advection versus diffusion, total larval output, and temporal and spatial variability in dispersal influence population persistence. Recent empirical studies using population genetics, parentage analysis, and geochemical and artificial marks in calcified structures have improved the understanding of dispersal. However, many such studies report current self-recruitment (locally produced settlement/settlement from elsewhere), which is not as directly useful as local retention (locally produced settlement/total locally released), which is a component of the dispersal matrix. Modeling of biophysical circulation with larval particle tracking can provide the required elements of dispersal matrices and assess their sensitivity to flows and larval behavior, but it requires more assumptions than direct empirical methods. To make rapid progress in understanding the scales and patterns of connectivity, greater communication between empiricists and population modelers will be needed. Empiricists need to focus more on identifying the characteristics of the dispersal matrix, while population modelers need to track and assimilate evolving empirical results.
珊瑚礁海洋保护区（MPA）的设计和决策需要利用种群模型来预测MPA的影响。MPA建模表明，MPA系统中集合种群的持久性如何取决于MPA的大小和间距，以及MPA之外的捕鱼水平。然而，幼体扩散产生的种群统计连通性模式是这些建模研究中的一个关键不确定因素。评估种群持久性所需的信息是一个扩散矩阵，其中包含从每个地点前往其他各个地点的幼体比例，而不仅仅是各地点之间当前交换的幼体数量。最近利用假设扩散矩阵进行的集合种群建模研究表明，扩散的空间尺度、平流与扩散的程度、幼体总输出量以及扩散的时空变异性如何影响种群持久性。最近使用种群遗传学、亲权分析以及钙化结构中的地球化学和人工标记的实证研究增进了对扩散的理解。然而，许多此类研究报告的是当前的自我补充率（本地产生的定居/从其他地方来的定居），其不如本地留存率（本地产生的定居/本地释放的总数）直接有用，而本地留存率是扩散矩阵的一个组成部分。利用幼体粒子追踪对生物物理环流进行建模可以提供扩散矩阵所需的要素，并评估它们对水流和幼体行为的敏感性，但它比直接实证方法需要更多假设。为了在理解连通性的尺度和模式方面取得快速进展，经验主义者和种群建模者之间需要加强沟通。经验主义者需要更多地关注确定扩散矩阵的特征，而种群建模者需要追踪并吸收不断演变的实证结果。
