School of Automotive and Mechanical Engineering, Changsha University of Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China.
Forensic Sci Int. 2012 Oct 10;222(1-3):306-12. doi: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2012.07.007. Epub 2012 Jul 28.
Methods used to calculate intervals of accident reconstruction results are research hotspot in the word. The response surface methodology-interval analysis method (RSM-IAM) is a useful method for analyzing uncertainty of simulation results in this field, but there are two problems in this method because of the interval extension problem and inaccurate response surface models. In order to tackle these two problems, based on subinterval analysis thought and response surface methodology, an improved interval analysis method (RSM-IIAM) is proposed. In RSM-IIAM, the stepwise regression technique is used to obtain a reasonable response surface mode of the simulation model; and then, intervals of uncertain parameters are divided into several subintervals; after that, intervals of simulation results in accident reconstruction are calculated according to these subintervals. Finally, four numerical cases were given. Results showed that the RSM-IIAM is simple and high accuracy, which will be useful in analyzing uncertainty of simulation results in accident reconstruction.
用于计算事故重建结果区间的方法是国际研究热点。响应面法-区间分析方法（RSM-IAM）是分析该领域模拟结果不确定性的一种有用方法，但由于区间扩展问题和响应面模型不准确，该方法存在两个问题。为了解决这两个问题，基于区间分析思想和响应面法，提出了一种改进的区间分析方法（RSM-IIAM）。在 RSM-IIAM 中，采用逐步回归技术获得模拟模型的合理响应面模型；然后，将不确定参数的区间划分为若干个子区间；然后，根据这些子区间计算事故重建中模拟结果的区间。最后，给出了四个数值案例。结果表明，RSM-IIAM 简单且精度高，将有助于分析事故重建中模拟结果的不确定性。
