Research Institute of ITS and VII, Changsha University of Science & Technology, Changsha 410114, China.
Forensic Sci Int. 2012 Mar 10;216(1-3):49-60. doi: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2011.08.016. Epub 2011 Sep 9.
This paper is focused on the uncertainty of simulation results in accident reconstruction. The Upper and Lower Bound Method (ULM) and the Finite Difference Method (FDM), which can be easily applied in this field, are introduced firstly; the Response Surface Methodology (RSM) is then introduced into this field as an alternative methodology. In RSM, a sample set is firstly generated via uniform design; secondly, experiments are conducted according to the sample set with the help of simulation methods; thirdly, a response surface model is determined through regression analysis; finally, the uncertainty of simulation results can be analyzed using a combination of the response surface model and existing uncertainty analysis methods. It is later discussed in detail how to generate a sample set, how to calculate the range of simulation results and how to analyze the parameter sensitivity in RSM. Finally, the feasibility of RSM is validated by five cases. Moreover, the applicability of RSM, ULM and FDM in analyzing the uncertainty of simulation results is studied; the phenomena that ULM and FDM can hardly work while RSM can is found in the latter two cases. After an analysis of these five cases and the number of simulation runs required for each method, both advantages and disadvantages of these uncertainty analysis methods are indicated.
本文主要关注事故重建中模拟结果的不确定性。首先介绍了在该领域中易于应用的上下限法 (ULM) 和有限差分法 (FDM)；然后，响应面法 (RSM) 作为替代方法被引入该领域。在 RSM 中，首先通过均匀设计生成样本集；其次，根据样本集在模拟方法的帮助下进行实验；第三，通过回归分析确定响应面模型；最后，通过响应面模型和现有的不确定性分析方法的组合来分析模拟结果的不确定性。然后详细讨论了如何生成样本集、如何计算模拟结果的范围以及如何在 RSM 中分析参数敏感性。最后，通过五个案例验证了 RSM 的可行性。此外，还研究了 RSM、ULM 和 FDM 在分析模拟结果不确定性中的适用性，在后两种方法中发现 ULM 和 FDM 很难工作而 RSM 可以。对这五个案例和每种方法所需的模拟运行次数进行分析后，指出了这些不确定性分析方法的优缺点。
