Brown Foundation Institute of Molecular Medicine, University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston, Houston, TX 77030, USA.
Risk Anal. 2012 Jul;32 Suppl 1:S142-50. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01741.x.
The Rice-MD Anderson group uses a two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) model of lung cancer mortality calibrated to a combination of MD Anderson case-control data on smoking histories and lung cancer mortality/incidence rate data collected from prospective cohorts in order to predict risk of lung cancer. This model is used to simulate lung cancer mortality in the U.S. population under the three scenarios of CISNET lung group's smoking base case project in order to estimate the effect of tobacco control policy on lung cancer mortality rates. Simulation results show that tobacco control policies have achieved 35% of the reduction in lung cancer mortality that would have resulted from cessation of all smoking in 1965.
赖斯-安德森癌症中心的团队使用了一种两阶段克隆扩张（TSCE）模型来预测肺癌死亡率，该模型经过了对 MD 安德森病例对照数据中吸烟史和前瞻性队列中收集的肺癌死亡率/发病率数据的组合校准，以预测肺癌风险。该模型用于模拟美国人口在 CISNET 肺癌组吸烟基础案例项目的三种情况下的肺癌死亡率，以估计烟草控制政策对肺癌死亡率的影响。模拟结果表明，烟草控制政策已经实现了 1965 年停止所有吸烟将导致的肺癌死亡率降低的 35%。
