Oxford Outcomes, Oxford, United Kingdom (RP)
Division of Epidemiology, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada (DF)
Med Decis Making. 2012 Sep-Oct;32(5):712-21. doi: 10.1177/0272989X12454578.
The transmissible nature of communicable diseases is what sets them apart from other diseases modeled by health economists. The probability of a susceptible individual becoming infected at any one point in time (the force of infection) is related to the number of infectious individuals in the population, will change over time, and will feed back into the future force of infection. These nonlinear interactions produce transmission dynamics that require specific consideration when modeling an intervention that has an impact on the transmission of a pathogen. Best practices for designing and building these models are set out in this paper.
传染病的传染性使其有别于健康经济学家所建模的其他疾病。在任何一个时间点（感染率），易感个体被感染的概率与人群中感染个体的数量有关，它会随时间变化，并会反馈到未来的感染率中。这些非线性相互作用产生了传播动态，在对影响病原体传播的干预措施进行建模时需要特别考虑。本文阐述了设计和构建这些模型的最佳实践。
