Division of Humanities and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena 91125, USA.
Psychol Sci. 2012 Dec;23(12):1524-33. doi: 10.1177/0956797612447817. Epub 2012 Oct 18.
Hindsight bias is the tendency to retrospectively think of outcomes as being more foreseeable than they actually were. It is a robust judgment bias and is difficult to correct (or "debias"). In the experiments reported here, we used a visual paradigm in which performers decided whether blurred photos contained humans. Evaluators, who saw the photos unblurred and thus knew whether a human was present, estimated the proportion of participants who guessed whether a human was present. The evaluators exhibited visual hindsight bias in a way that matched earlier data from judgments of historical events surprisingly closely. Using eye tracking, we showed that a higher correlation between the gaze patterns of performers and evaluators (shared attention) is associated with lower hindsight bias. This association was validated by a causal method for debiasing: Showing the gaze patterns of the performers to the evaluators as they viewed the stimuli reduced the extent of hindsight bias.
后视偏差是指人们倾向于事后认为结果比实际情况更可预测。它是一种稳健的判断偏差，很难纠正（或“去偏差”）。在本报告的实验中，我们使用了一种视觉范式，其中执行者决定模糊照片是否包含人类。评估者看到的是未模糊的照片，因此知道是否有人在场，他们估计参与者猜测是否有人在场的比例。评估者表现出的视觉后视偏差与之前对历史事件的判断数据惊人地吻合。通过眼动追踪，我们发现执行者和评估者的注视模式之间的相关性越高（共同关注），则后视偏差越低。通过一种用于去偏差的因果方法验证了这种关联：在评估者观看刺激物时，向他们展示执行者的注视模式，可减少后视偏差的程度。
