González-Pérez Guillermo Julián, Vega-López María Guadalupe, Cabrera-Pivaral Carlos Enrique, Vega-López Agustín, Muñoz de la Torre Armando
Centro de Estudios en Salud, Población y Desarrollo Humano, Centro Universitario de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de Guadalajara, Guadalajara, Jalisco, México.
Cien Saude Colet. 2012 Dec;17(12):3195-208. doi: 10.1590/s1413-81232012001200005.
This study seeks to analyze the trend of homicide rates (total and by firearm) in Mexico between 1990 and 2009 and identify the variables that best explain the geographical variations of these rates in the 2008-2009 two-year period. Homicide rates, adjusted for age, were calculated for both sexes between 1990 and 2009 and for each state in 2008-2009. Factors associated with the interstate variations in the homicide rates were identified using multiple linear regression analysis. Results show that the homicide rate in Mexico decreased between 1990 and 2007, but doubled over the last two years (from 7.6 to 16.6 per 100,000). In 2009, the male homicide rate was almost 9 times higher than the female rate and about two-thirds of homicides involved firearms. Multivariate analysis reveals that impunity, drug trafficking, alcohol and drug consumption and school dropout in basic education - in that order - are key factors for understanding the geographical variations in homicide rates in Mexico in 2008-2009. Findings suggest that to reduce the number of homicide victims and spatial variations in the rate, it is necessary not only to fight the drug cartels, but above all to implement structural reforms in the criminal justice system and reduce the socioeconomic disparities among states.
本研究旨在分析1990年至2009年墨西哥凶杀率（总计及按枪支分类）的趋势，并确定最能解释2008 - 2009年这两年期间这些比率地理差异的变量。计算了1990年至2009年期间两性以及2008 - 2009年每个州经年龄调整后的凶杀率。使用多元线性回归分析确定了与凶杀率州际差异相关的因素。结果显示，墨西哥的凶杀率在1990年至2007年期间有所下降，但在过去两年中翻了一番（从每10万人7.6起增至16.6起）。2009年，男性凶杀率几乎是女性凶杀率的9倍，约三分之二的凶杀案涉及枪支。多变量分析表明，有罪不罚、毒品贩运、酒精和毒品消费以及基础教育阶段的辍学——按此顺序——是理解2008 - 2009年墨西哥凶杀率地理差异的关键因素。研究结果表明，为了减少凶杀案受害者数量和凶杀率的空间差异，不仅有必要打击贩毒集团，而且最重要的是要在刑事司法系统中进行结构性改革，并缩小各州之间的社会经济差距。
