TRYSE Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Granada, ETSI Caminos, Canales y Puertos, c/Severo Ochoa s/n, 18071 Granada, Spain.
Accid Anal Prev. 2013 Mar;51:1-10. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2012.10.016. Epub 2012 Nov 24.
One of the principal objectives of traffic accident analyses is to identify key factors that affect the severity of an accident. However, with the presence of heterogeneity in the raw data used, the analysis of traffic accidents becomes difficult. In this paper, Latent Class Cluster (LCC) is used as a preliminary tool for segmentation of 3229 accidents on rural highways in Granada (Spain) between 2005 and 2008. Next, Bayesian Networks (BNs) are used to identify the main factors involved in accident severity for both, the entire database (EDB) and the clusters previously obtained by LCC. The results of these cluster-based analyses are compared with the results of a full-data analysis. The results show that the combined use of both techniques is very interesting as it reveals further information that would not have been obtained without prior segmentation of the data. BN inference is used to obtain the variables that best identify accidents with killed or seriously injured. Accident type and sight distance have been identify in all the cases analysed; other variables such as time, occupant involved or age are identified in EDB and only in one cluster; whereas variables vehicles involved, number of injuries, atmospheric factors, pavement markings and pavement width are identified only in one cluster.
交通事故分析的主要目标之一是确定影响事故严重程度的关键因素。然而,由于原始数据中存在异质性,交通事故分析变得困难。在本文中,潜在类别聚类 (LCC) 被用作对 2005 年至 2008 年在西班牙格拉纳达农村公路上发生的 3229 起事故进行细分的初步工具。接下来,贝叶斯网络 (BN) 用于识别整个数据库 (EDB) 和 LCC 先前获得的聚类中涉及事故严重程度的主要因素。基于这些聚类的分析结果与全数据分析的结果进行了比较。结果表明,两种技术的结合使用非常有趣,因为它揭示了在没有对数据进行预先细分的情况下不会获得的进一步信息。贝叶斯网络推理用于获得最能识别致死或重伤事故的变量。在分析的所有情况下,都确定了事故类型和视距;在 EDB 中确定了其他变量,如时间、涉及的乘员或年龄,而仅在一个聚类中确定了变量车辆涉及、受伤人数、大气因素、路面标记和路面宽度。