Sloan F A, Reilly B A, Schenzler C
Center for Health Policy Research and Education, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708.
J Stud Alcohol. 1994 Jul;55(4):454-65. doi: 10.15288/jsa.1994.55.454.
Alcohol use has been linked to several causes of death. This study provides an empirical analysis of the effects of various public policies on mortality rates by state and year for the years 1982-88. Causes of death analyzed are: alcohol primary cause; traffic accident; homicides; suicides; falls, fires and other accidents; and contributory cause deaths (cancers of the alimentary tract). We find that increasing the price of alcohol decreases mortality rates for some of the causes, but not for primary cause deaths. Higher excise taxes on cigarettes reduce contributory cause mortality. Dram shop laws have negative and statistically significant effects not only on mortality rates from traffic accidents, but for several of the other causes. There is a need for further analysis to determine how these reductions are achieved. We find no evidence that imposing mandatory minimum jail terms, fines or license revocation for a DUI conviction affects alcohol-related mortality. However, increased police protection decreases mortality rates for several categories, especially homicides and traffic accidents. We find that imposing the death penalty reduces homicide rates. Reductions in alcohol-related mortality may be achieved by implementing a mix of public policies. No single policy is a panacea.
饮酒与多种死因相关。本研究对1982 - 1988年期间各州不同年份的各种公共政策对死亡率的影响进行了实证分析。分析的死因包括：酒精为主要死因；交通事故；凶杀；自杀；跌倒、火灾及其他事故；以及促成死因导致的死亡（消化道癌症）。我们发现，提高酒精价格可降低部分死因的死亡率，但对主要死因导致的死亡无效。提高香烟消费税可降低促成死因导致的死亡率。酒馆法不仅对交通事故死亡率有负面且具有统计学意义的影响，对其他一些死因也有影响。需要进一步分析以确定这些降低是如何实现的。我们没有发现证据表明，对酒后驾车定罪强制判处最低监禁刑期、罚款或吊销驾照会影响与酒精相关的死亡率。然而，增加警力保护可降低几类死因的死亡率，尤其是凶杀和交通事故。我们发现判处死刑可降低凶杀率。通过实施多种公共政策组合可能实现与酒精相关死亡率的降低。没有单一政策是万灵药。
