Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.
Expert Rev Vaccines. 2012 Nov;11(11):1319-29. doi: 10.1586/erv.12.109.
Resolving the long-term, population-level consequence of vaccine-induced immunity to pertussis is a key challenge for control strategies and vaccine development. Controlled vaccine efficacy studies provide invaluable information; however, they are limited in scope by their sample size and follow-up duration. Long-term time series of incidence data collected by public health institutions provide insight at a broader scale, especially when the data are spatially explicit and age stratified. By using modern ecological and statistical methodolgies, which are reviewed in this paper, new insights into the duration of transmission-blocking immunity and the age-specific patterns of transmission can be gained. Recent advances in computing power and statistical software development will increasingly make these methods available to public health practitioners, vaccine developers and academics alike.
解决由百日咳疫苗诱导的免疫的长期、人群水平后果是控制策略和疫苗开发的一个关键挑战。对照疫苗效力研究提供了非常有价值的信息；然而，由于样本量和随访时间的限制，其范围有限。公共卫生机构收集的长期时间序列发病率数据在更广泛的范围内提供了深入的见解，特别是当数据具有空间明确性和年龄分层时。通过使用本文中回顾的现代生态学和统计方法，可以深入了解阻断传播的免疫持续时间和特定年龄的传播模式。计算能力和统计软件的最新进展将使这些方法越来越多地为公共卫生从业人员、疫苗开发者和学者所掌握。
