Neuroepidemiology. 2013;40(3):160-77. doi: 10.1159/000345123. Epub 2012 Dec 14.
Coalition bombings on the night of 18-19 January 1991, early in the Gulf War, targeted the Iraqi chemical weapons infrastructure. On 19 January 1991, nerve agent alarms sounded within Coalition positions hundreds of kilometers to the south, and the trace presence of sarin vapor was identified by multiple technologies. Considering only surface dispersion of plumes from explosions, officials concluded that the absence of casualties around bombed sites precluded long-distance transit of debris to US troop positions to explain the alarms and detections. Consequently, they were discounted as false positives, and low-level nerve agent exposure early in the air war was disregarded in epidemiologic investigations of chronic illnesses.
Newly assembled evidence indicates that plumes from those nighttime bombings of Iraqi chemical facilities would have traversed the stable nocturnal boundary layer and penetrated the residual layer where they would be susceptible to rapid transit by supergeostrophic winds. This explanation is supported by plume height predictions, available weather charts, weather satellite images showing transit of a hot air mass, effects of solar mixing of atmospheric layers, and observations of a stationary weather front and thermal inversion in the region.
Current evidence supports long-distance transit. Epidemiologic studies of chronic postwar illness should be reassessed using veterans' reports of hearing nerve agent alarms as the measure of exposure.
1991 年 1 月 18 日至 19 日夜间，海湾战争初期，联军对伊拉克的化学武器基础设施进行了轰炸。1991 年 1 月 19 日，位于数百公里以南的联军阵地上响起了神经毒剂警报，多种技术检测到沙林蒸气的微量存在。由于仅考虑了爆炸羽流的地表扩散，官员们得出结论，认为在被轰炸地点周围没有人员伤亡，这排除了碎片长途运输到美军阵地以解释警报和探测的可能性。因此，这些警报被认为是假阳性，而在空战早期对低水平神经毒剂的暴露在对慢性疾病的流行病学调查中被忽略了。
新汇编的证据表明，那些夜间轰炸伊拉克化学设施的爆炸羽流将穿过稳定的夜间边界层，并穿透残留层，在那里它们容易受到超地转风的快速输送。这一解释得到了羽流高度预测、可用天气图表、显示热空气团过境的天气卫星图像、大气层太阳混合效应以及该地区静止锋和热逆温的观测的支持。
目前的证据支持远距离输送。应根据退伍军人报告听到神经毒剂警报作为暴露的衡量标准，重新评估对慢性战后疾病的流行病学研究。
