Wasserman D, Spellerberg S
Karolinska Institute, Department of Psychiatry, Huddinge University Hospital, Sweden.
Acta Psychiatr Scand. 1990 Feb;81(2):190-6. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0447.1990.tb06477.x.
A total of 22,961 admissions, representing 19,127 individuals, diagnosed as certain or undetermined attempted suicide were registered in the computer medical information system in Stockholm County for the study period 1975-1985. Two different statistical regression models were used to describe the trends of attempted suicide and undetermined attempted suicide. A simple linear ordinary least squares model generally performed better at describing the observed rates in sex- and age-specific rates of attempted suicide when the diagnosis of attempted suicide was certain. Significantly increasing attempted-suicide trends for men over 35 and women over 45 as well as for all ages pooled for both men and women were found. Undetermined attempted suicides were described better by a quadratic model than by the linear model. Women 35-44 and 65-85 years old and men 25-54 years old were found to have an increasing initial phase followed by a leveling out in the rates around 1980-1982, with weak evidence that the rate might even be slowly decreasing. Comparing earlier findings of decreasing rates in completed suicides for all ages, and findings in this study of increasing attempted-suicide trends during the same period, we believe that improved somatic and psychiatric treatment of attempted-suicide patients may partly account for the decreased rates of completed suicides.
在1975年至1985年的研究期间，斯德哥尔摩县计算机医疗信息系统中登记了总共22961例被诊断为确定或不确定的自杀未遂入院病例，涉及19127人。使用了两种不同的统计回归模型来描述自杀未遂和不确定的自杀未遂的趋势。当自杀未遂的诊断确定时，简单线性普通最小二乘法模型在描述按性别和年龄分类的自杀未遂发生率方面通常表现更好。发现35岁以上男性、45岁以上女性以及所有年龄的男性和女性汇总后的自杀未遂趋势显著增加。与线性模型相比，二次模型能更好地描述不确定的自杀未遂情况。发现35 - 44岁和65 - 85岁的女性以及25 - 54岁的男性在1980 - 1982年左右的发生率有一个上升的初始阶段，随后趋于平稳，且有微弱证据表明发生率甚至可能在缓慢下降。比较之前关于所有年龄段自杀死亡率下降的研究结果，以及本研究中同一时期自杀未遂趋势上升的结果，我们认为对自杀未遂患者改善躯体和精神治疗可能部分解释了自杀死亡率的下降。
