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对儿子的渴望和过度生育:印度家庭生育进程的分析。

The desire for sons and excess fertility: a household-level analysis of parity progression in India.

机构信息

Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Eau Claire, WI, USA.

出版信息

Int Perspect Sex Reprod Health. 2012 Dec;38(4):178-86. doi: 10.1363/3817812.

Abstract

CONTEXT

The desire for sons often influences fertility behavior in India. Women with a small number or low proportion of sons may be more likely than other women to continue childbearing.

METHODS

Data from India's 2005-2006 National Family Health Survey were used to examine several hypotheses regarding the association between sex composition of children and parity progression among parous women aged 35-49. Descriptive analyses and multivariate logistic regression analysis that controlled for possible confounders were performed separately by parity.

RESULTS

Women with more sons than daughters were generally less likely than those with more daughters than sons to continue childbearing; parity progression driven by the desire for sons accounted for 7% of births. At any given parity, the last-born child of women who had stopped childbearing was more likely to be a son than a daughter (sex ratios, 133-157). In multivariate analyses, women without any sons were more likely than women without any daughters to continue childbearing at parities 1-4 (odds ratios, 1.4-4.5). At most or all parities, continued childbearing was positively associated with having had a child who died, and negatively associated with levels of women's education and media exposure and with household wealth.

CONCLUSIONS

The desire for sons appears to be a significant motivation for parity progression. Although population policies that reduce family size are essential, also imperative are policies that reduce desire for sons by challenging the perception that sons are more valuable than daughters.

摘要

背景

在印度,人们普遍想要儿子,这种愿望常常会影响生育行为。与拥有较多女儿的女性相比,拥有较少或较低比例儿子的女性更有可能继续生育。

方法

本研究使用了印度 2005-2006 年全国家庭健康调查的数据,以检验关于儿童性别构成与 35-49 岁经产妇生育进程之间关联的若干假设。通过多元逻辑回归分析控制了可能的混杂因素,分别按生育胎次进行了描述性分析和多元逻辑回归分析。

结果

与拥有较多女儿的女性相比,拥有较多儿子的女性往往不太可能继续生育;受生育儿子愿望驱动的生育进程占出生人数的 7%。在任何给定的生育胎次中,已经停止生育的女性的最后一个孩子更有可能是男孩而不是女孩(性别比例为 133-157)。在多元分析中,没有任何儿子的女性比没有任何女儿的女性更有可能在生育胎次 1-4 时继续生育(比值比为 1.4-4.5)。在大多数或所有生育胎次中,继续生育与生育过死亡儿童呈正相关,与女性教育水平、媒体接触度和家庭财富呈负相关。

结论

生育儿子的愿望似乎是生育进程的一个重要动机。虽然减少家庭规模的人口政策至关重要,但减少对儿子的偏好的政策同样必不可少,这些政策可以通过挑战认为儿子比女儿更有价值的观念来实现。

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