疟疾模型如何将温度与疟疾传播联系起来。
How malaria models relate temperature to malaria transmission.
机构信息
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Norway.
出版信息
Parasit Vectors. 2013 Jan 18;6:20. doi: 10.1186/1756-3305-6-20.
BACKGROUND
It is well known that temperature has a major influence on the transmission of malaria parasites to their hosts. However, mathematical models do not always agree about the way in which temperature affects malaria transmission.
METHODS
In this study, we compared six temperature dependent mortality models for the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto. The evaluation is based on a comparison between the models, and observations from semi-field and laboratory settings.
RESULTS
Our results show how different mortality calculations can influence the predicted dynamics of malaria transmission.
CONCLUSIONS
With global warming a reality, the projected changes in malaria transmission will depend on which mortality model is used to make such predictions.
背景
众所周知，温度对疟原虫向宿主传播有重大影响。然而，数学模型并不总是一致认为温度影响疟疾传播的方式。
方法
在这项研究中，我们比较了六种温度依赖型疟疾媒介按蚊斯氏亚种的死亡率模型。评估基于模型之间的比较以及半野外和实验室观察结果。
结果
我们的结果表明，不同的死亡率计算如何影响疟疾传播的预测动态。
结论
随着全球变暖成为现实，疟疾传播的预测变化将取决于用于进行此类预测的死亡率模型。
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