Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2013;7(3):e2098. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0002098. Epub 2013 Mar 7.
In light of multinational efforts to reduce helminthiasis, we evaluated whether there exist high-risk subpopulations for helminth infection. Such individuals are not only at risk of morbidity, but may be important parasite reservoirs and appropriate targets for disease control interventions.
METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We followed two longitudinal cohorts in Sichuan, China to determine whether there exist persistent human reservoirs for the water-borne helminth, Schistosoma japonicum, in areas where treatment is ongoing. Participants were tested for S. japonicum infection at enrollment and two follow-up points. All infections were promptly treated with praziquantel. We estimated the ratio of the observed to expected proportion of the population with two consecutive infections at follow-up. The expected proportion was estimated using a prevalence-based model and, as highly exposed individuals may be most likely to be repeatedly infected, a second model that accounted for exposure using a data adaptive, machine learning algorithm. Using the prevalence-based model, there were 1.5 and 5.8 times more individuals with two consecutive infections than expected in cohorts 1 and 2, respectively (p<0.001 in both cohorts). When we accounted for exposure, the ratio was 1.3 (p = 0.013) and 2.1 (p<0.001) in cohorts 1 and 2, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found clustering of infections within a limited number of hosts that was not fully explained by host exposure. This suggests some hosts may be particularly susceptible to S. japonicum infection, or that uncured infections persist despite treatment. We propose an explanatory model that suggests that as cercarial exposure declines, so too does the size of the vulnerable subpopulation. In low-prevalence settings, interventions targeting individuals with a history of S. japonicum infection may efficiently advance disease control efforts.
鉴于多国努力减少寄生虫病,我们评估了是否存在寄生虫感染的高危亚人群。这些人不仅有患病风险,而且可能是重要的寄生虫宿主,也是疾病控制干预的适当目标。
方法/主要发现:我们在中国四川的两个纵向队列中进行了随访,以确定在持续治疗的地区,是否存在持续存在的水传播寄生虫日本血吸虫的人类宿主。在入组和两次随访时,参与者都接受了日本血吸虫感染检测。所有感染者均立即用吡喹酮进行治疗。我们估计了在随访中连续两次感染的人群比例的观察值与预期值之比。预期比例是使用基于患病率的模型估计的,由于高度暴露的个体最有可能被反复感染,因此还使用了一种基于数据自适应的机器学习算法来考虑暴露的第二种模型。使用基于患病率的模型,队列 1 和队列 2 中连续两次感染的人数分别比预期多 1.5 倍和 5.8 倍(两组均 p<0.001)。当我们考虑暴露因素时,队列 1 和队列 2 的比值分别为 1.3(p = 0.013)和 2.1(p<0.001)。
结论/意义:我们发现,在有限数量的宿主中,感染呈聚集性,这不能完全用宿主暴露来解释。这表明一些宿主可能特别容易受到日本血吸虫感染,或者尽管进行了治疗,未治愈的感染仍在持续。我们提出了一个解释性模型,表明随着尾蚴暴露的减少,脆弱亚人群的规模也随之减少。在低流行地区,针对日本血吸虫感染史个体的干预措施可能会有效地推进疾病控制工作。