Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University, Matieland, 7602, South Africa.
J Environ Manage. 2013 May 15;120:138-47. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.02.001. Epub 2013 Mar 22.
Can markets assist by providing support for ecological restoration, and if so, under what conditions? The first step in addressing this question is to develop a consistent methodology for economic evaluation of ecological restoration projects. A risk analysis process was followed in which a system dynamics model was constructed for eight diverse case study sites where ecological restoration is currently being pursued. Restoration costs vary across each of these sites, as do the benefits associated with restored ecosystem functioning. The system dynamics model simulates the ecological, hydrological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and informs a portfolio mapping exercise where payoffs are matched against the likelihood of success of a project, as well as a number of other factors (such as project costs and risk measures). This is the first known application that couples ecological restoration with system dynamics and portfolio mapping. The results suggest an approach that is able to move beyond traditional indicators of project success, since the effect of discounting is virtually eliminated. We conclude that systems dynamic modelling with portfolio mapping can guide decisions on when markets for restoration activities may be feasible.
市场能否通过为生态恢复提供支持来发挥作用？如果可以，那么需要满足什么条件？要回答这个问题，首先需要制定出生态恢复项目经济评估的一致方法。我们遵循风险分析流程，为当前正在进行生态恢复的 8 个不同案例研究地点构建了系统动力学模型。这些地点的恢复成本各不相同，与恢复的生态系统功能相关的效益也各不相同。系统动力学模型模拟了生态、水文和经济效益的生态恢复，并提供了投资组合映射练习，根据项目的成功可能性、项目成本和风险措施等其他因素来匹配回报。这是首次将生态恢复与系统动力学和投资组合映射相结合的应用。结果表明，这种方法能够超越传统的项目成功指标，因为几乎消除了折现的影响。我们的结论是，结合投资组合映射的系统动力学建模可以为决策提供指导，即何时可以开展恢复活动的市场。
