School of Computer Science and Software Engineering, University of Western Australia, Perth, Western Australia, Australia.
BMJ Open. 2013 Mar 26;3(3):e002518. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2012-002518.
The possible occurrence of a highly pathogenic influenza strain is of concern to health authorities worldwide. It is known that during past influenza pandemics developing countries have experienced considerably higher death rates compared with developed countries. Furthermore, many developing countries lack appropriate pandemic preparedness plans. Mathematical modelling studies to guide the development of such plans are largely focused on predicting pandemic influenza spread in developed nations. However, intervention strategies shown by modelling studies to be highly effective for developed countries give limited guidance as to the impact which an influenza pandemic may have on low-income countries given different demographics and resource constraints. To address this, an individual-based model of a Papua New Guinean (PNG) community was created and used to simulate the spread of a novel influenza strain. The results were compared with those obtained from a comparable Australian model.
A modelling study.
The towns of Madang in PNG (population ∼35 000) and Albany (population ∼30 000) in Australia.
Daily and cumulative illness attack rates in both models following introduction of a novel influenza strain into a naive population, for an unmitigated scenario and two social distancing intervention scenarios.
The unmitigated scenario indicated an approximately 50% higher attack rate in PNG compared with the Australian model. The two social distancing-based interventions strategies were 60-70% less effective in a PNG setting compared with an Australian setting.
This study provides further evidence that an influenza pandemic occurring in a low-income country such as PNG may have a greater impact than one occurring in a developed country, and that PNG-feasible interventions may be substantially less effective. The larger average household size in PNG, the larger proportion of the population under 18 and greater community-wide contact all contribute to this feature.
高致病性流感毒株的出现引起了世界卫生当局的关注。众所周知，在过去的流感大流行中，发展中国家的死亡率远远高于发达国家。此外，许多发展中国家缺乏适当的大流行准备计划。指导制定这些计划的数学建模研究主要集中在预测发达国家的大流行性流感传播。然而，建模研究表明，对于发达国家而言，干预策略非常有效，但对于低收入国家而言，由于人口统计学和资源限制的不同，大流行性流感可能产生的影响的指导有限。为了解决这个问题，创建了一个基于个人的巴布亚新几内亚（PNG）社区模型，并用于模拟新型流感株的传播。将结果与从可比的澳大利亚模型获得的结果进行了比较。
建模研究。
巴布亚新几内亚的马当镇（人口约 35000 人）和澳大利亚的奥尔巴尼镇（人口约 30000 人）。
在未缓解的情况下以及两种社会隔离干预方案下，两种模型中引入新流感株后，人群的每日和累积发病率。
在未缓解的情况下，PNG 的发病率比澳大利亚模型高约 50%。在 PNG 环境中，两种基于社会隔离的干预策略的有效性比澳大利亚环境低 60-70%。
这项研究进一步证明，在像 PNG 这样的低收入国家发生的流感大流行可能比在发达国家发生的流感大流行造成更大的影响，并且在 PNG 可行的干预措施可能效果要差得多。PNG 较大的平均家庭规模，18 岁以下人口比例较大以及更广泛的社区接触都促成了这一特征。
