DePaul University, USA.
Disasters. 2013 Jul;37(3):357-73. doi: 10.1111/disa.12004. Epub 2013 Apr 18.
The optimal level of investment in mitigation strategies is usually difficult to ascertain in the context of disaster planning. This research develops a model to provide such direction by relying on cost of quality literature. This paper begins by introducing a static approach inspired by Joseph M. Juran's cost of quality management model (Juran, 1951) to demonstrate the non-linear trade-offs in disaster management expenditure. Next it presents a dynamic model that includes the impact of dynamic interactions of the changing level of risk, the cost of living, and the learning/investments that may alter over time. It illustrates that there is an optimal point that minimises the total cost of disaster management, and that this optimal point moves as governments learn from experience or as states get richer. It is hoped that the propositions contained herein will help policymakers to plan, evaluate, and justify voluntary disaster mitigation expenditures.
在灾害规划的背景下，通常难以确定缓解策略的最佳投资水平。本研究通过依赖质量成本文献，开发了一个模型来提供这样的指导。本文首先介绍了一种受约瑟夫·M·朱兰（Joseph M. Juran）的质量成本管理模型（Juran，1951）启发的静态方法，以展示灾害管理支出中的非线性权衡。接下来，它提出了一个动态模型，该模型包括风险水平、生活成本以及随着时间的推移可能发生变化的学习/投资的动态交互的影响。它表明，存在一个最优点，可以最小化灾害管理的总成本，并且随着政府从经验中学习或国家变得更加富裕，这个最优点会移动。希望本文中的命题将有助于政策制定者规划、评估和证明自愿灾害缓解支出的合理性。
