Cong Chunling, Kepner James, Tsokos Chris P
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA;
Int J Biomed Sci. 2011 Mar;7(1):70-6.
What is the probabilistic nature of mortality time in ex-smoker lung cancer patients and non-smoker lung cancer patients, for female, male, and the totality of female and male patients? Is there significant difference of mortality time between ex-smoker and non-smoker patients? For ex-smokers, are there any differences with respect to the key variables such as mortality time, cigarettes per day (CPD), and duration of smoking between female and male patients? For non-smokers, can we notice a difference in mortality time between female and male patients? Can we accurately predict mortality time given information on CPD, starting time and quitting time for a specific lung cancer patient who smokes? Thus best fitting probability distributions are identified and their parameters are estimated. Mean mortality times are compared between non-smokers and ex-smokers, female non-smokers and male non-smokers, and female ex-smokers and male ex-smokers. Important entities related to lung cancer mortality time, such as cigarettes per day (CPD), and duration of smoking (DUR), are compared between female and male ex-smoker lung cancer patients. Finally, a model is developed to predict the mortality time of ex-smokers with a high degree of accuracy.
本文的目的是利用真实的肺癌数据进行参数分析和非参数分析，以解决一些与肺癌相关的非常重要的问题：对于女性、男性以及女性和男性患者的总体而言，既往吸烟者肺癌患者和非吸烟者肺癌患者的死亡时间的概率性质是什么？既往吸烟者和非吸烟者患者的死亡时间是否存在显著差异？对于既往吸烟者，女性和男性患者在死亡时间、每日吸烟量（CPD）和吸烟持续时间等关键变量方面是否存在差异？对于非吸烟者，我们能否注意到女性和男性患者在死亡时间上的差异？对于特定的吸烟肺癌患者，根据其CPD、开始吸烟时间和戒烟时间信息，我们能否准确预测其死亡时间？因此，确定了最佳拟合概率分布并估计了其参数。比较了非吸烟者与既往吸烟者、女性非吸烟者与男性非吸烟者、女性既往吸烟者与男性既往吸烟者之间的平均死亡时间。比较了女性和男性既往吸烟者肺癌患者之间与肺癌死亡时间相关的重要因素，如每日吸烟量（CPD）和吸烟持续时间（DUR）。最后，开发了一个模型以高度准确地预测既往吸烟者的死亡时间。
