Grady G F, Maxfield H K, Hildreth S W, Timperi R J, Gilfillan R F, Rosenau B J, Francy D B, Calisher C H, Marcus L C, Madoff M A
Am J Epidemiol. 1978 Feb;107(2):170-8. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a112519.
Reappearance of eastern equine encephalitis (EEE) in Massachusetts residents in the 1970's provided an opportunity to assess the predictive value of data on rainfall, EEE in horses, and carriage of EEE virus (EEEV) by mosquitoes, factors which had been studied annually since the last EEE outbreak in 1955-1956. The cycle of multiple cases during 1973-1975 started in a second consecutive year of rainfall that exceeded the annual mean by more than 20 cm, conditions recapitulating the 1955-1956 experience. In 1973, widespread EEE fatalities in horses presaged human cases, another recapitulation of the 1955-1956 experience. However, in 1974, when horses were immunized extensively, no equine cases were seen even though three human fatalities occurred. An unseasonably early appearance of EEEV in mosquitoes was the only basis upon which the threat to humans could have been recognized. These changes in the recognition and distribution of EEEV activity from season to season illustrate the difficulty in making rational decisions regarding widespread aerial insecticide applications for mosquito control.
20世纪70年代马萨诸塞州居民中东部马脑炎（EEE）再次出现，这提供了一个机会来评估降雨数据、马的EEE以及蚊子携带EEE病毒（EEEV）的数据的预测价值，自1955 - 1956年最后一次EEE疫情爆发以来，这些因素每年都在研究。1973 - 1975年多例病例的周期始于连续第二年降雨量超过年平均值20厘米以上，这种情况重现了1955 - 1956年的经历。1973年，马中广泛出现的EEE死亡预示着人类病例的出现，这又是对1955 - 1956年经历的一次重现。然而，在1974年，当马被广泛免疫时，即使有三例人类死亡病例发生，也没有出现马的病例。蚊子中EEEV异常早地出现是唯一能够识别对人类威胁的依据。EEEV活动在不同季节的识别和分布的这些变化说明了在就广泛空中喷洒杀虫剂以控制蚊子做出合理决策方面的困难。
