Letson G W, Bailey R E, Pearson J, Tsai T F
Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Fort Collins, Colorado.
Am J Trop Med Hyg. 1993 Dec;49(6):677-85. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.1993.49.677.
An Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE) outbreak in 1989 led to nine human and 196 equine cases, chiefly in coastal Atlantic and Gulf Coast counties. In the past two decades, EEE age-specific incidence and mortality rates have declined compared with earlier years. Analysis of rainfall patterns in areas where human EEE cases occurred between 1983 and 1989 revealed an association between occurrence of human cases and excess rainfall. The association was stronger with data from local weather stations than from statewide rainfall averages and the predictive models were best when applied to northern states. The sensitivity and specificity of these measures varied, depending on the model used, but the positive predictive value was no better than 50%, regardless of the rainfall model applied.
1989年发生的一次东部马脑炎（EEE）疫情导致9例人类病例和196例马匹病例，主要集中在大西洋沿岸和墨西哥湾沿岸各县。在过去二十年中，与早些年相比，EEE按年龄划分的发病率和死亡率有所下降。对1983年至1989年间出现人类EEE病例地区的降雨模式进行分析后发现，人类病例的出现与降雨过多之间存在关联。与来自全州降雨平均值的数据相比，当地气象站的数据显示的这种关联更强，并且这些预测模型应用于北部各州时效果最佳。这些措施的敏感性和特异性因所使用的模型而异，但无论应用哪种降雨模型，阳性预测值都不超过50%。
