Section of Epidemiology Biostatistics, School of Population Health, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
Prev Med. 2013 Sep;57(3):152-61. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2013.05.001. Epub 2013 May 21.
To estimate the incidence and risk of medically or police attended bicycle crashes in a prospective cohort study in New Zealand.
The Taupo Bicycle Study involved 2590 adult cyclists recruited from the country's largest cycling event in 2006 and followed over a median period of 4.6 years through linkage to four administrative databases. Incidence rates with Poisson distribution confidence intervals were computed and Cox regression modelling for repeated events was performed.
The 66 on-road crashes and 10 collisions per 1000 person-years corresponded to 240 crashes and 38 collisions per million hours spent road cycling. The risk increased by 6% and 8% respectively for an extra cycling hour each week. There were 50 off-road crashes per 1000 person-years. Residing in urban areas and in Auckland (region with the lowest level of cycling), riding in a bunch, using a road bike and experiencing a previous crash predicted a higher risk. Habitual use of conspicuity aids appeared to lower the risk.
The risk is higher in urban areas and where cycling is less common, and increased by bunch riding and previous crashes. These findings alongside the possible protective effect of conspicuity aids suggest promising approaches to improving cycle safety.
在新西兰的一项前瞻性队列研究中，估计医学或警方参与的自行车事故的发生率和风险。
陶波自行车研究涉及 2590 名成年自行车手，他们是在 2006 年该国最大的自行车活动中招募的，通过与四个行政数据库的链接，随访中位数为 4.6 年。使用泊松分布置信区间计算发病率，并对重复事件进行 Cox 回归建模。
66 起道路碰撞事故和 10 起碰撞事故每 1000 人-年发生，相当于每 100 万小时道路自行车骑行发生 240 起事故和 38 起碰撞事故。每周额外骑行一小时，风险分别增加 6%和 8%。每 1000 人-年有 50 起非道路碰撞事故。居住在城市地区和奥克兰（自行车运动水平最低的地区）、成群骑行、使用公路自行车以及经历过以前的事故，预示着更高的风险。习惯性使用可视性辅助设备似乎降低了风险。
在城市地区和自行车运动不那么普遍的地区，风险更高，成群骑行和以前的事故会增加风险。这些发现以及可视性辅助设备的可能保护作用表明，改善自行车安全有一些有希望的方法。
