多种因素导致疾病病例的年龄分布：甲型 H3N2v 流感背景下的建模研究。
Multiple contributory factors to the age distribution of disease cases: a modeling study in the context of influenza A(H3N2v).
机构信息
Modeling Unit, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 1600 Clifton Rd. NE, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.
出版信息
Clin Infect Dis. 2013 Jul;57 Suppl 1(Suppl 1):S23-7. doi: 10.1093/cid/cit298.
BACKGROUND
In late 2011 and early 2012, 13 cases of human influenza resulted from infection with a novel triple reassortant swine-origin influenza virus, influenza A (H3N2) variant. This variant was notable for its inclusion of the matrix gene from the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic virus. While most of these confirmed cases were among children, the transmission potential and likely age-dependent susceptibility to the virus was unknown. Preliminary serologic studies indicated that very young children have less protection than older children and adults.
METHODS
We construct a mathematical transmission model of influenza transmission that allows for external zoonotic exposure to infection and show how exposure and susceptibility-related factors contribute to the observed case distribution.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
Age-dependent susceptibility to infection strongly influences epidemic dynamics. The result is that the risk of an outbreak in a highly susceptible age group may be substantially higher than in an older age group with less susceptibility, but exposure-related factors must also be accounted for when interpreting case data.
背景
2011 年末至 2012 年初，13 例人感染流感由新型三重重配猪源流感病毒（甲型 H3N2 流感病毒）引起。该变异株的显著特点是包含了 2009 年甲型 H1N1 流感大流行病毒的基质基因。虽然大多数确诊病例发生在儿童中，但该病毒的传播潜力和可能的年龄依赖性易感性尚不清楚。初步血清学研究表明，年幼的儿童比年长的儿童和成年人的保护力更小。
方法
我们构建了一个流感传播的数学传播模型，该模型允许外部的动物源性暴露感染，并展示了暴露和易感性相关因素如何影响观察到的病例分布。
结果和结论
感染的年龄依赖性易感性强烈影响着流行动力学。结果是，在高度易感的年龄组中爆发的风险可能远高于易感程度较低的老年组，但在解释病例数据时，还必须考虑与暴露相关的因素。
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