Laboratorio de Eco-Epidemiología, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Intendente Güiraldes 2160, Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires C1428EGA, Argentina.
Acta Trop. 2013 Dec;128(3):461-7. doi: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2013.07.019. Epub 2013 Jul 30.
The objective of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of Aedes aegypti immatures based on four entomological surveys that inspected over 6000 households in a large neighborhood of the city of Clorinda between 2007 and 2008. Global and local spatial point pattern analyses of immature presence or absence, habitat quality (estimated using a previously obtained statistical model) and pupal production were performed. Global analyses showed aggregation of both infestation and habitat quality up to 10 times bigger than previously described, ranging from 150 to 400m between surveys. Pupal production was also clustered but at smaller scales than infestation presence/absence. The location of the clusters was temporally unstable between surveys. There was no spatial structure related to the control strategy; lots treated with temephos and lots uninspected (i.e., closed or refusing) were randomly distributed. These results suggest a combination of exogenous (the aggregation of better quality habitats) and endogenous (dispersal) processes explaining the observed patterns of larger-scale infestation. A spatial targeting strategy at the neighborhood scale would not be as cost-effective in Clorinda as in other sites where stable smaller-scale clusters permit the identification of key premises.
本研究的目的是分析 2007 年至 2008 年期间，在克洛琳达市一个大型街区的 6000 多户家庭进行的四次昆虫学调查中，埃及伊蚊幼虫的时空模式。对幼虫存在或不存在、栖息地质量（使用先前获得的统计模型估计）和蛹产量进行了全局和局部空间点格局分析。全局分析表明，侵染和栖息地质量的聚集范围比以前描述的大 10 倍，两次调查之间的范围在 150 到 400 米之间。蛹产量也呈聚集分布，但规模小于侵染存在/不存在。集群的位置在两次调查之间是不稳定的。与控制策略没有空间结构关系；用涕灭威处理的地段和未检查的地段（即封闭或拒绝）随机分布。这些结果表明，外生（聚集质量较好的栖息地）和内生（扩散）过程的结合解释了较大规模侵染的观察模式。在克洛琳达，针对邻里规模的空间定位策略可能不如在其他地方那样具有成本效益，因为在其他地方，稳定的小尺度集群允许识别关键场所。
