Near Aimee M, Mandelblatt Jeanne S, Schechter Clyde B, Stoto Michael A
Department of Oncology, Georgetown University Medical Center and Cancer Control Program, Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, 3300 Whitehaven St, NW, Suite 4100, Washington, DC 20007.
Epidemiol Res Int. 2012 Apr 26;2012(2012). doi: 10.1155/2012/241340.
Black women in the District of Columbia (DC) have the highest breast cancer mortality in the US. Local cancer control planners are interested in how to most efficiently reduce this mortality.
An established simulation model was adapted to reflect the experiences of Black women in DC and estimate the past and future impact of changes in use of screening and adjuvant treatment.
The model estimates that the observed reduction in mortality that occurred from 1975 to 2007 attributable to screening, treatment, and both was 20.2%, 25.7%, and 41.0% respectively. The results suggest that, by 2020, breast cancer mortality among Black women in DC could be reduced by 6% more by initiating screening at age 40 vs. age 50. Screening annually may also reduce mortality to a greater extent than biennially, albeit with a marked increase in false positive screening rates.
This study demonstrates how modeling can provide data to assist local planners as they consider different cancer control policies based on their individual populations.
哥伦比亚特区（DC）的黑人女性乳腺癌死亡率在美国最高。当地癌症控制规划者对如何最有效地降低这一死亡率感兴趣。
采用一个既定的模拟模型来反映DC黑人女性的情况，并估计筛查和辅助治疗使用变化的过去和未来影响。
该模型估计，1975年至2007年期间，归因于筛查、治疗以及两者共同作用导致的死亡率下降分别为20.2%、25.7%和41.0%。结果表明，到2020年，与50岁开始筛查相比，DC黑人女性在40岁开始筛查可使乳腺癌死亡率再降低6%。每年进行筛查也可能比每两年进行一次筛查在更大程度上降低死亡率，尽管假阳性筛查率会显著增加。
本研究展示了建模如何能够提供数据，以协助当地规划者根据其各自的人群考虑不同的癌症控制政策。
